CAJ | 학술논문

近年来,美元贬值以及石油价格上涨一直被认为是造成有色金属价格上涨的两个可能的原因。在这一背景下,笔者采用VAR模型分析了美元价值和石油价格变化对我国铜、黄金、白银等金属价格的冲击影响,以及在此冲击下三种金属价格间的相互影响关系。结果表明：美元价值以及黄金和白银二者之间的相互影响关系在很大程度上决定了我国黄金和白银的价格行为;而美元、石油、黄金以及白银价格的变化对于我国铜金属价格的冲击尽管是显著的,但是四者均不是铜金属价格上涨的主要原因。
근년래,미원폄치이급석유개격상창일직피인위시조성유색금속개격상창적량개가능적원인。재저일배경하,필자채용VAR모형분석료미원개치화석유개격변화대아국동、황금、백은등금속개격적충격영향,이급재차충격하삼충금속개격간적상호영향관계。결과표명：미원개치이급황금화백은이자지간적상호영향관계재흔대정도상결정료아국황금화백은적개격행위;이미원、석유、황금이급백은개격적변화대우아국동금속개격적충격진관시현저적,단시사자균불시동금속개격상창적주요원인。
In recent years,it is known that the US dollar depreciation and oil price escalation may account for nonferrous metal price soaring.This paper analyzes the interrelationship amomg nonferrous metal prices,US dollar value and oil price based on VAR models.It is suggested that gold and silver price increase significantly aginst US dollar depreciation.Though the price fluctuation of US dollar,oil,gold and silver may lead to a obvious impact on China＇s copper price,none of them mainly account for China＇s copper price escalation.Measures to avoid metals prices fluctuation caused by external factors is proposed.