CAJ | 학술논문

改革开放以来,福建省GDP、能源消费量和碳排放量均呈增长趋势。基于协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,考察了福建省1978—2009年能源消费、经济增长和碳排放量之间的关系。结果表明,福建省能源消费、经济增长与碳排放量三者之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;短期内存在着从经济增长到二氧化碳排放以及从能源消费到二氧化碳排放的格兰杰因果关系;长期内存在从经济增长和能源消费到二氧化碳排放的格兰杰因果关系。
개혁개방이래,복건성GDP、능원소비량화탄배방량균정증장추세。기우협정분석화격란걸인과검험,고찰료복건성1978—2009년능원소비、경제증장화탄배방량지간적관계。결과표명,복건성능원소비、경제증장여탄배방량삼자지간존재장기균형적협정관계;단기내존재착종경제증장도이양화탄배방이급종능원소비도이양화탄배방적격란걸인과관계;장기내존재종경제증장화능원소비도이양화탄배방적격란걸인과관계。
Since the reform and opening up,Fujian＇s GDP,energy consumption and carbon emissions showes an increasing trend.Based on cointegration analysis and Granger causality test,the article examines the relationship between energy consumption,economic growth and carbon emissions from1978 to 2009 inFujian Province.It finds that there is a stable equilibrium relationships between these variables.In the short term there exits a Granger causality from economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions and from energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions.And in the long term there is a Granger causality from economic growth and energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions.