CAJ | 학술논문

众所周知,我国是人口大国,人口数量问题和人口结构问题严重阻碍了我国社会、经济、资源、环境等方面的可持续发展。在新中国成立以来人口增长趋势以及两次人口波动情况后,从虚拟变量的角度,考察了计划生育政策的实行对我国人口的影响,结果表明计划生育政策大大减缓了我国的人口增长速度,对控制人口形势发挥了显著作用。在此基础上,运用组合模型,一方面克服了自相关性,更重要的是,利用组合模型在预测方面的优势,对未来五年我国人口进行预测,结果表明,在2014年,我国人口将突破14亿,2015年,我国人口总量将达到14.2684亿。
음소주지,아국시인구대국,인구수량문제화인구결구문제엄중조애료아국사회、경제、자원、배경등방면적가지속발전。재신중국성립이래인구증장추세이급량차인구파동정황후,종허의변량적각도,고찰료계화생육정책적실행대아국인구적영향,결과표명계화생육정책대대감완료아국적인구증장속도,대공제인구형세발휘료현저작용。재차기출상,운용조합모형,일방면극복료자상관성,경중요적시,이용조합모형재예측방면적우세,대미래오년아국인구진행예측,결과표명,재2014년,아국인구장돌파14억,2015년,아국인구총량장체도14.2684억。
It is well known that China has a very large population.Both the size and the structure of population hinder sustainable development of society,economics,resources and environment.This paper studies the trend of population growth and volatility since new China and analyzes the effect of family planning policy based on the dummy variable.The result shows that this policy reduces the speed of population growth and controls the population situation.Then we overcome the autocorrelation through combined model.What＇s more,this model helps us forecast the population 5 years later.The results show that the population in China will break through 1.4 billion and in 2015 the population may be 1.4268 billion.