经济理论与经济管理
經濟理論與經濟管理
경제이론여경제관리
Economic Theory and Business Management
2012年
5期
12~20
,共null页
经济增长 通货膨胀 福利成本 宏观调控
經濟增長 通貨膨脹 福利成本 宏觀調控
경제증장 통화팽창 복리성본 굉관조공
economic growth; inflation; welfare cost; macro-control
经济理论和实践经验通常认为我国经济增长放缓的福利成本远高于通货膨胀的福利成本,因而＂保增长＂的重要性远高于＂防通胀＂。本文认为这一判断已经不再适用于我国当前情况,核心原因是当前家庭的财产积累水平较以往有了大幅度提高,通胀将通过财产再分配效应造成严重的社会福利损失。经过计算发现：在各组参数设定下,5%的通胀和经济增速下滑一个百分点所造成的社会总福利成本（对消费的补偿比例）分别平均是1.8%和5.9%;通胀福利成本与增长放缓福利成本之比平均为32.9%,相比之下,在不考虑财产再分配效应的计算方法中,该比例仅为约16%。这说明在中长期＂保增长＂和＂防通胀＂都具有重要的社会福利意义,因此宏观调控应该将二者都作为重要的政策目标。
經濟理論和實踐經驗通常認為我國經濟增長放緩的福利成本遠高于通貨膨脹的福利成本,因而＂保增長＂的重要性遠高于＂防通脹＂。本文認為這一判斷已經不再適用于我國噹前情況,覈心原因是噹前傢庭的財產積纍水平較以往有瞭大幅度提高,通脹將通過財產再分配效應造成嚴重的社會福利損失。經過計算髮現：在各組參數設定下,5%的通脹和經濟增速下滑一箇百分點所造成的社會總福利成本（對消費的補償比例）分彆平均是1.8%和5.9%;通脹福利成本與增長放緩福利成本之比平均為32.9%,相比之下,在不攷慮財產再分配效應的計算方法中,該比例僅為約16%。這說明在中長期＂保增長＂和＂防通脹＂都具有重要的社會福利意義,因此宏觀調控應該將二者都作為重要的政策目標。
경제이론화실천경험통상인위아국경제증장방완적복리성본원고우통화팽창적복리성본,인이＂보증장＂적중요성원고우＂방통창＂。본문인위저일판단이경불재괄용우아국당전정황,핵심원인시당전가정적재산적루수평교이왕유료대폭도제고,통창장통과재산재분배효응조성엄중적사회복리손실。경과계산발현：재각조삼수설정하,5%적통창화경제증속하활일개백분점소조성적사회총복리성본（대소비적보상비례）분별평균시1.8%화5.9%;통창복리성본여증장방완복리성본지비평균위32.9%,상비지하,재불고필재산재분배효응적계산방법중,해비례부위약16%。저설명재중장기＂보증장＂화＂방통창＂도구유중요적사회복리의의,인차굉관조공응해장이자도작위중요적정책목표。
According to practical experience and academic research, it was generally believed that the most important objective of macro-control was not anti-inflation but to maintain growth. This paper concluded that this viewpoint was no longer applicable to the current situation of China. The family＇s property had greatly increased, and inflation would cause serious welfare loss by the effect of property redistribution. According to calculation, the average welfare cost of inflation rate of 5% and the slowdown in economic growth by 1% were 1.75% and 5.86%. The average ratio between the two was 32.94%, while the ratio excluded property redistribution effect was only around 16 %. These results indicated that both maintaining economic growth and anti-inflation played important roles in improving social welfare, which should be the important objectives of macro-control.
