CAJ | 학술논문

非常规突发事件破坏力巨大,极少出现或者不会出现预兆,是历史罕见事件,具有极度不确定性.因此非常规突发事件应对任务是一个不确定决策问题.非常规突发事件的应对任务可以分解为紧急补救任务和控制恢复任务.在分析紧急补救任务和控制恢复任务的不确定属性的基础上,建立了非常规突发事件应对任务的极大值不确定机会约束规划模型.该模型是在应对任务成本的机会约束下,极大应对任务净收益的乐观值.最后,通过大规模停电应对的算例,演示了机会约束规划模型在应对任务规划中的应用途径.
비상규돌발사건파배력거대,겁소출현혹자불회출현예조,시역사한견사건,구유겁도불학정성.인차비상규돌발사건응대임무시일개불학정결책문제.비상규돌발사건적응대임무가이분해위긴급보구임무화공제회복임무.재분석긴급보구임무화공제회복임무적불학정속성적기출상,건립료비상규돌발사건응대임무적겁대치불학정궤회약속규화모형.해모형시재응대임무성본적궤회약속하,겁대응대임무정수익적악관치.최후,통과대규모정전응대적산례,연시료궤회약속규화모형재응대임무규화중적응용도경.
Unconventional emergency,with litter or no omen,always makes a heavy impact on our country;it is rarely seen in history,and is an uncertain event.The response mission for unconventional emergency could be divided into instant remedy mission and disaster controlling mission,which should be modeling by uncertain function.A chance constraint model for unconventional emergency response mission is developed,after emergency resources and its allotment ways are analyzed.This chance constraint model is to maximize the optimal value of return function,under the chance constraint of response cost.Finally, in order to give a presentation of methodology for emergency response decision under chance constraint programming,an example about emergency response for large-scale blackouts is designed.