系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2012年
5期
1003~1009
,共null页
魏亨武 方志耕 杨保华 胡明礼 孔彪
魏亨武 方誌耕 楊保華 鬍明禮 孔彪
위형무 방지경 양보화 호명례 공표
雪灾 交通站点 负荷 极大熵模型
雪災 交通站點 負荷 極大熵模型
설재 교통참점 부하 겁대적모형
snow disaster; traffic sites; load; maximum entropy model
提出了一种新的城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型.该模型克服传统的Markov链方法的不足,考虑到乘客转移偏好的动态改变以及各交通站点之间的滞留情况会相互影响,以此构建了雪灾情形下乘客分布的极大熵模型,并进一步设计了交通站点负荷率的计算方法,推演出了雪灾后交通站点负荷的动态变化情况,为相关部门采取应对措施提供参考依据.最后用一个预测实例比较该方法与传统的Markov链方法的预测结果,结果表明该方法更优.
提齣瞭一種新的城市交通站點負荷的動態預測模型.該模型剋服傳統的Markov鏈方法的不足,攷慮到乘客轉移偏好的動態改變以及各交通站點之間的滯留情況會相互影響,以此構建瞭雪災情形下乘客分佈的極大熵模型,併進一步設計瞭交通站點負荷率的計算方法,推縯齣瞭雪災後交通站點負荷的動態變化情況,為相關部門採取應對措施提供參攷依據.最後用一箇預測實例比較該方法與傳統的Markov鏈方法的預測結果,結果錶明該方法更優.
제출료일충신적성시교통참점부하적동태예측모형.해모형극복전통적Markov련방법적불족,고필도승객전이편호적동태개변이급각교통참점지간적체류정황회상호영향,이차구건료설재정형하승객분포적겁대적모형,병진일보설계료교통참점부하솔적계산방법,추연출료설재후교통참점부하적동태변화정황,위상관부문채취응대조시제공삼고의거.최후용일개예측실례비교해방법여전통적Markov련방법적예측결과,결과표명해방법경우.
A new dynamic prediction model of load of urban traffic sites during snow disaster is presented. The model overcomes the shortcomings of traditional Markov Chain method.Considering the dynamic changes of passengers＇ preferences and the interaction of traffic sites,the author establishes the maximum entropy model of distribution of passengers during snow disaster,and on this basis a method of calculating the load rate of traffic sites is presented,with which the dynamic changes of the load of traffic sites can be deduced.This provides a reference for the relevant departments to make response measures.Finally,a case is used to compare the method with the Markov chain method,and the result shows that the method the author presented is better.
