CAJ | 학술논문

基于1995～2009年中国省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型估计人口因素对我国CO2排放量的影响,结果显示：人口数量和人口城市化率是影响我国CO2排放的主要人口因素,但从影响大小上看,人口数量变化对发达省份CO2排放的影响大于欠发达省份,而人口城市化率则对欠发达省份的CO2排放具有更大的影响;家庭小型化对CO2排放的影响因省而异,对不同省份,要么没有明显的影响,要么可能导致CO2排放量增加;年龄结构目前还不是导致我国CO2排放量变化的主要人口因素;综合比较而言,经济发展水平对CO2排放的影响大于人口各因素,产业结构对CO2排放的影响小于人口数量和人口城市化率,而技术进步与CO2排放的关系则显得模糊。
기우1995～2009년중국성제면판수거,이용면판분위수회귀모형고계인구인소대아국CO2배방량적영향,결과현시：인구수량화인구성시화솔시영향아국CO2배방적주요인구인소,단종영향대소상간,인구수량변화대발체성빈CO2배방적영향대우흠발체성빈,이인구성시화솔칙대흠발체성빈적CO2배방구유경대적영향;가정소형화대CO2배방적영향인성이이,대불동성빈,요요몰유명현적영향,요요가능도치CO2배방량증가;년령결구목전환불시도치아국CO2배방량변화적주요인구인소;종합비교이언,경제발전수평대CO2배방적영향대우인구각인소,산업결구대CO2배방적영향소우인구수량화인구성시화솔,이기술진보여CO2배방적관계칙현득모호。
Based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2009 in China,using panel quantile regression model estimate the impact of demographic factors on China’s carbon dioxide emissions,the results showed that： Population size and urbanization are the main demographic factors which impact China’s carbon dioxide emissions,but the marginal effect of population size is large in the developed provinces,while the marginal effect of urbanization is larger in the less developed provinces;Smaller family trend impacts on carbon dioxide emissions differently by province.The effect is positive in some provinces and is not significant in the other provinces.Age structure is not yet a major demographic factors who led to change in carbon dioxide emissions;Comprehensive comparison,the impact of economic development on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the impact of demographic factors on it,the marginal effect of industry structure on carbon dioxide emissions is less than that of population size and urbanization,but the relationship between technological progress and carbon dioxide emissions are blurred.