CAJ | 학술논문

利用2003～2009年省际面板数据对我国蔬菜价格波动的主要影响因素进行实证分析后发现,蔬菜产量、蔬菜生产成本、政府对蔬菜生产的补贴、农户对蔬菜价格的预期、GDP增长率、农村和城镇居民对蔬菜的消费量、替代品价格等因素没有通过显著性检验,蔬菜的进口量和出口量、蔬菜的成灾面积、农村和城镇居民人均收入水平等因素通过了显著性检验。调控蔬菜价格应从积极引导以推动蔬菜生产稳定发展、增强预警以降低突发事件对蔬菜价格波动的影响、合理规划以保障不同群体对蔬菜的不同需求等方面着手。
이용2003～2009년성제면판수거대아국소채개격파동적주요영향인소진행실증분석후발현,소채산량、소채생산성본、정부대소채생산적보첩、농호대소채개격적예기、GDP증장솔、농촌화성진거민대소채적소비량、체대품개격등인소몰유통과현저성검험,소채적진구량화출구량、소채적성재면적、농촌화성진거민인균수입수평등인소통과료현저성검험。조공소채개격응종적겁인도이추동소채생산은정발전、증강예경이강저돌발사건대소채개격파동적영향、합리규화이보장불동군체대소채적불동수구등방면착수。
Taking use of the panel data of provinces in the year of 2003-2009,we analyze the main factors influencing vegetable price.We find that the factors can not pass test of variance,such as the output,producing cost,government subsidy,famers＇ anticipation to vegetable price,growth rate of GDP,consumption amount of rural and urban residents,the price of substitutes.These factors,such as imported and exported amount of vegetable,vegetable drought affected area,the income level of rural and urban residents,and so on,pass the test of variance.Therefore,to control the price of vegetable,we should start from active guidance to promote the steady development of vegetable produce,strengthening the early warning to reduce influence of incidents to vegetable fluctuation,make reasonable planning to ensuring different group＇s vegetable demands.