南方经济
南方經濟
남방경제
South China journal of Economy
2012年
6期
74~84
,共null页
基本养老保险 统筹账户 个人账户 退休年龄 支付能力
基本養老保險 統籌賬戶 箇人賬戶 退休年齡 支付能力
기본양로보험 통주장호 개인장호 퇴휴년령 지부능력
Basic Pension System ;Mutual Account;Individual Account;Retirement Age; Solvency
本文通过构建我国社会养老保险基金支付能力的精算模型,研究了延长退休年龄后,基金支付能力的变化情况。结果表明,延长退休年龄不一定能够增加养老保险基金的支付能力,因为延长退休年龄后,虽然缴费期限延长了,缴费收入增加了,但养老保险基金支出也增加了,最终结果就是不确定的,要受到很多因素的影响,包括利率、社会平均工资增长率、在职职工工资增长率、养老金增长率和死亡率分布等等。如果要通过延长退休年龄来提高养老保险基金的支付能力,应全面分析各种相关因素的共同作用,否则适得其反。
本文通過構建我國社會養老保險基金支付能力的精算模型,研究瞭延長退休年齡後,基金支付能力的變化情況。結果錶明,延長退休年齡不一定能夠增加養老保險基金的支付能力,因為延長退休年齡後,雖然繳費期限延長瞭,繳費收入增加瞭,但養老保險基金支齣也增加瞭,最終結果就是不確定的,要受到很多因素的影響,包括利率、社會平均工資增長率、在職職工工資增長率、養老金增長率和死亡率分佈等等。如果要通過延長退休年齡來提高養老保險基金的支付能力,應全麵分析各種相關因素的共同作用,否則適得其反。
본문통과구건아국사회양로보험기금지부능력적정산모형,연구료연장퇴휴년령후,기금지부능력적변화정황。결과표명,연장퇴휴년령불일정능구증가양로보험기금적지부능력,인위연장퇴휴년령후,수연격비기한연장료,격비수입증가료,단양로보험기금지출야증가료,최종결과취시불학정적,요수도흔다인소적영향,포괄리솔、사회평균공자증장솔、재직직공공자증장솔、양로금증장솔화사망솔분포등등。여과요통과연장퇴휴년령래제고양로보험기금적지부능력,응전면분석각충상관인소적공동작용,부칙괄득기반。
This article constructs the actuarial model of Chinese basic pension system, and analyzes the effect on the solvency by delaying retirement age. We fred that whether the solvency will be increased or not is uncertain, because change of solvency is affected by investment return rate, growth of individual wage and social average wage, growth of benefits, and distribution of mortality. Although the premiums of pension funds increase after delaying retirement age, payments may also increase, so that we can＇ t certainly forecast whether the solvency increased or decreased. If we hope to enhance the solvency of pension system, we should think globallY all factors which affect the solvency.
