预测
預測
예측
Forecasting
2012年
3期
19~23
,共null页
财政支出 就业 时滞性 格兰杰因果检验 多元回归
財政支齣 就業 時滯性 格蘭傑因果檢驗 多元迴歸
재정지출 취업 시체성 격란걸인과검험 다원회귀
fiscal expenditure ; employment; hysteresis ; Granger causality test; multivariable regression
针对中国面临严重的就业问题，在市场无法充分解决的情况下，本文研究财政支出的就业效应。通过计算财政支出各项明细与就业的相关系数，确定了各项财政支出的就业影响时滞期。对现行财政政策的就业效应进行了实证分析，有针对性地对非财政教育投入、非预算内固定资产投资进行格兰杰因果性分析，利用，统计量、卡方统计量、赤池信息准则、贝叶斯信息准则等检验方法对财政支出变量进行逐步回归，剔除不显著变量后，构建了财政支出政策的就业回归模型，并提出了调整财政支出结构的实践路径选择。
針對中國麵臨嚴重的就業問題，在市場無法充分解決的情況下，本文研究財政支齣的就業效應。通過計算財政支齣各項明細與就業的相關繫數，確定瞭各項財政支齣的就業影響時滯期。對現行財政政策的就業效應進行瞭實證分析，有針對性地對非財政教育投入、非預算內固定資產投資進行格蘭傑因果性分析，利用，統計量、卡方統計量、赤池信息準則、貝葉斯信息準則等檢驗方法對財政支齣變量進行逐步迴歸，剔除不顯著變量後，構建瞭財政支齣政策的就業迴歸模型，併提齣瞭調整財政支齣結構的實踐路徑選擇。
침대중국면림엄중적취업문제，재시장무법충분해결적정황하，본문연구재정지출적취업효응。통과계산재정지출각항명세여취업적상관계수，학정료각항재정지출적취업영향시체기。대현행재정정책적취업효응진행료실증분석，유침대성지대비재정교육투입、비예산내고정자산투자진행격란걸인과성분석，이용，통계량、잡방통계량、적지신식준칙、패협사신식준칙등검험방법대재정지출변량진행축보회귀，척제불현저변량후，구건료재정지출정책적취업회귀모형，병제출료조정재정지출결구적실천로경선택。
When China is confronting increasingly severe employment problem and the market could not fully solve this problem, the employment effect of fiscal expenditure policy is studied in this paper. The coefficients of fiscal expenditure items and employment are calculated, and fiscal expenditure items＇ lag phases are determined. Empirical analysis is done of the current fiscal expenditure policy＇ s employment effect, and Granger causality analysis is done of non-fiscal educational investment and non-budgeted fixed asset investment. Stepwise regression of fiscal expenditure variables is carried out using the F statistic, Chi-square statistic, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion. Excluding not significant variables, the regression model of fiscal expenditure policy and employment is built. Besides, practical pathway is brought forward for adjusting fiscal expenditure structure.
