CAJ | 학술논문

去进度效应总和生育率指标是由人口学家Bongaarts和Feeney于1998年建立的，它是基于总和生育率容易受到平均生育年龄影响的缺点而提出的，希望它能够剔除进度效应，同时，也是为了更好地反映终身生育率方面的相关信息。然而这一调整指标的设计与计算是否合理、准确呢？这里从该指标计算的前提条件、数据基础和计算方法三个方面进行了相关的讨论，并利用中国近年来的实际数据进行了必要的检验。结果表明：该指标核心调整公式的前提假设在现实中难以满足，指标对于平均生育年龄变化的敏感度高，而平均生育年龄的测量与计算方法使得计算结果产生的误差较大，导致调整指标出现错误的几率增高。对于总和生育率易受平均生育年龄影响的问题我们还需进一步的思考和解决。
거진도효응총화생육솔지표시유인구학가Bongaarts화Feeney우1998년건립적，타시기우총화생육솔용역수도평균생육년령영향적결점이제출적，희망타능구척제진도효응，동시，야시위료경호지반영종신생육솔방면적상관신식。연이저일조정지표적설계여계산시부합리、준학니？저리종해지표계산적전제조건、수거기출화계산방법삼개방면진행료상관적토론，병이용중국근년래적실제수거진행료필요적검험。결과표명：해지표핵심조정공식적전제가설재현실중난이만족，지표대우평균생육년령변화적민감도고，이평균생육년령적측량여계산방법사득계산결과산생적오차교대，도치조정지표출현착오적궤솔증고。대우총화생육솔역수평균생육년령영향적문제아문환수진일보적사고화해결。
The Tempo Adjusted TFR （TFR＇） is proposed because of the disadvantages of the Total Fertility Rate in representing the lifetime fertility level. However, is the TFR＇ reasonable and accurate？ This paper discusses the assumptions, data requirements and calculating method of TFR＇. Examina- tions and tests of the TFR＇ are conducted using Chinese data. The paper concludes that the assump- tions of this method are problematic, this index is sensitive to the change of the mean age at childbear- ing, and serious error in the measurement could occur. The issue of the impact of average childbearing age on total fertility rate needs further exploration and research.