经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2012年
6期
19~24
,共null页
三次产业 高能耗产业 能源消耗 经济增长 协同影响
三次產業 高能耗產業 能源消耗 經濟增長 協同影響
삼차산업 고능모산업 능원소모 경제증장 협동영향
three strata of industry; high - energy industry; energy consumption ; economic growth ; Synergisticeffects
摘要：运用Granger因果关系检验方法，分别从三次产业和高能耗产业两方面实证研究了我国产业结构对能源消耗与经济增长的协同影响程度，结果表明：第一产业与其能源消耗之间显示出从经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系，第二产业表现出经济增长和能源消耗之间的双向因果关系，第三产业能耗与经济之间没有格兰杰因果关系；GDP增长会引起部分高耗能产业能耗的增长，但各产业能耗的增长幅度有很大的不同，能耗需求增长最多的是黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业；从上游产业和下游产业的划分来看，上游的金属冶炼加工产业、石油炼焦加工等产业耗能大，但对GDP的拉动作用不显著，下游的纺织业、机械制造业等耗能较小，但是对GDP的拉动作用显著。
摘要：運用Granger因果關繫檢驗方法，分彆從三次產業和高能耗產業兩方麵實證研究瞭我國產業結構對能源消耗與經濟增長的協同影響程度，結果錶明：第一產業與其能源消耗之間顯示齣從經濟增長到能源消耗的單嚮因果關繫，第二產業錶現齣經濟增長和能源消耗之間的雙嚮因果關繫，第三產業能耗與經濟之間沒有格蘭傑因果關繫；GDP增長會引起部分高耗能產業能耗的增長，但各產業能耗的增長幅度有很大的不同，能耗需求增長最多的是黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業；從上遊產業和下遊產業的劃分來看，上遊的金屬冶煉加工產業、石油煉焦加工等產業耗能大，但對GDP的拉動作用不顯著，下遊的紡織業、機械製造業等耗能較小，但是對GDP的拉動作用顯著。
적요：운용Granger인과관계검험방법，분별종삼차산업화고능모산업량방면실증연구료아국산업결구대능원소모여경제증장적협동영향정도，결과표명：제일산업여기능원소모지간현시출종경제증장도능원소모적단향인과관계，제이산업표현출경제증장화능원소모지간적쌍향인과관계，제삼산업능모여경제지간몰유격란걸인과관계；GDP증장회인기부분고모능산업능모적증장，단각산업능모적증장폭도유흔대적불동，능모수구증장최다적시흑색금속야련급압연가공업；종상유산업화하유산업적화분래간，상유적금속야련가공산업、석유련초가공등산업모능대，단대GDP적랍동작용불현저，하유적방직업、궤계제조업등모능교소，단시대GDP적랍동작용현저。
The paper use the methods of Granger causality test to study China＇ s industrial structure and eco- nomic growth of energy consumption level of synergy effects from three strata of industry and high - energy indus- tries. The results show that the primary industry and its energy consumption show to one - way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, the secondary industry and energy consumption show to two - way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, tertiary industrial and its energy con- sumption do not show granger causality with economic growth. GDP growth will cause energy consumption growth of some high - energy industrial, but the growth rate of industrial energy consumption are very different. The most growth of energy demand is the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry. From the division point of up- stream and downstream, the energy consumption in the metal smelting processing industry, oil processing and coking industry of upstream industry is more, but the stimulating effect on GDP is not significant. Energy consumption in the textile industry, machinery manufacturing of downstream industry is smaller, but significant role in boosting the GDP.
