CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用广义最小平方法和处理面板数据的固定影响模型,利用我国各省市1995-2009年物质消耗指数、人均GDP和人均固定资产投资等跨部门的时间序列数据,分析经济增长与物质消耗的关系。其主要结论如下：经济增长与物质消耗呈现正向关系,没有表现出明显的去物质化。固定资产投资对物质消耗趋势在统计上具有很好的解释力。固定效应模型下的广义最小二乘法对于处理跨部门的时间序列数据有明显的效果,固定效应模型的省际差异项有效地刻画了物质消耗与经济增长相关关系的省级差异。我国目前仍处于有形资产的积累阶段,为了达到发达国家的固定资产积累水平,必要的基础设施建设不能缺少。产业结构的差异会影响物质消耗与经济增长的关系强度,第一产业相对于第二产业需要更多的物质消耗。经济发展水平同样会影响物质消耗与经济增长的关系强度,发达地区相对于欠发达地区需要的物质消耗更少。
본문운용엄의최소평방법화처리면판수거적고정영향모형,이용아국각성시1995-2009년물질소모지수、인균GDP화인균고정자산투자등과부문적시간서렬수거,분석경제증장여물질소모적관계。기주요결론여하：경제증장여물질소모정현정향관계,몰유표현출명현적거물질화。고정자산투자대물질소모추세재통계상구유흔호적해석력。고정효응모형하적엄의최소이승법대우처리과부문적시간서렬수거유명현적효과,고정효응모형적성제차이항유효지각화료물질소모여경제증장상관관계적성급차이。아국목전잉처우유형자산적적루계단,위료체도발체국가적고정자산적루수평,필요적기출설시건설불능결소。산업결구적차이회영향물질소모여경제증장적관계강도,제일산업상대우제이산업수요경다적물질소모。경제발전수평동양회영향물질소모여경제증장적관계강도,발체지구상대우흠발체지구수요적물질소모경소。
Based on the time series cross-section （TSCS） data about index of material consumption, per capita GDP and per capita fixed assets investment （FAI） of all provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2009, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and material consumption by utilizing generalized least squares method （GLS） and fixed effects model dealing with panel data. The main conclusions are as follows： The relationship between economic growth and material consumption was positive, and did not show obvious dematerialization. The relationship between economic growth and FAI was significant statistically. Combining GLS with fixed-effect model is a helpful way to deal with TSCS data, and the provincial difference of relationship between economic growth and material consumption is well described with inter-provincial differences in [ CF = X] in the fixed-effect model. China is still in the stage of physical assets calculation. In order to reach developed countries＇ level, proper fundamental infrastructure is necessary. Industrial structure will influence the relationship between material consumption and economic growth. The primary and secondary industries need more material consumption than tertiary industry. The level of economy development will also affect the relationship between material consumption and economic growth. Developed areas need less material consumption.