CAJ | 학술논문

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明：2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。
해문근거중국2002년화2007년비경쟁형투입산출표、OECD적국외투입산출표화GTAP Version 7.0적CO2배방강도등수거,이용다국투입산출모형방법측산료중국대외무역중은함오염물,분석료무역은함오염물적행업결구분포이급재주요무역화반국중적무역류향,병통과결구분해방법분석료출구규모총량、출구결구변화、투입산출표중간결구변화급단위산치CO2배방량사대인소대출구무역은함CO2적공헌。연구결과표명：2002-2007년간,아국대외무역창조료거대무역순차,동시야대래료대량은함CO2、SO2순차,2002년화2007년무역은함CO2순차체6.21×108t화1.38×109t。2002년화2007년무역은함SO2순차분별위323.99만t화674.54만t;출구무역규모적확대사아국출구무역은함CO2대폭증가,대래료거대적배경압력,차출구무역결구、투입산출중간결구변화야증가료출구무역은함CO2적배방。단시단위산치적CO2배방량적강저대억제은함CO2증장치발휘료십분중요작용,고수요진일보우화무역결구,조정산업결구,제고능원이용효솔,야취시무역결구록색전형세재필행。
Based on the data from China＇ s non-competitive input-output tables for 2002 and 2007, foreign input-output tables from OECD and foreign CO2 emission intensity from GTAP version 7.0, this paper calculates CO2, SO2 embodied in China＇ s international trade and analyzes the China＇ s trade flows to the major partners and industry distribution by using the ＂multi-country input-output table model＂. The paper also explains how the four factors （ change to the export scale, change to export structure; change to the structure of input-output tables, and the amount of CO2 emission per unit of economic output） contribute to the increasing CO2 embodied in China＇ s export trade by using decomposition analysis. The research shows that： in the period of 2002 to 2007, China＇ s international trade has created a large number of trade surplus as well as great amount of embodied pollutant surplus. There are embodied CO2 surplus 621 ×10^6t and 1 381.06 × 10^6 t respectively in 2002 and 2007, and embodied SO2 323.99 × 10^4 t and 674.54 × 10^4 t respectively in 2002 and 2007. The booming scale of China＇ s export trade is the major contributor to the increase of CO2 embodied in China＇ s export trade, and moreover, the foreign trade structure and intermediate input-output structure contribute to the increase of CO2 embodied in Chian＇s export trade. However, the dropping intensity of CO2 emission, caused by the advance of energy-saving technology, has played an important role in inhibiting the increase of CO2 embodied in export trade. Therefore, we should update foreign trade and industry structure and promote energy efficiencies. In other words, green transformation of trade structure must be carried out.