系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2012年
6期
1270~1277
,共null页
宋金波 宋丹荣 富怡雯 戴大双
宋金波 宋丹榮 富怡雯 戴大雙
송금파 송단영 부이문 대대쌍
BOT 特许期 调整模型 风险分担 蒙特卡罗模拟
BOT 特許期 調整模型 風險分擔 矇特卡囉模擬
BOT 특허기 조정모형 풍험분담 몽특잡라모의
build-operate-transfer(BOT); concession period; adjustment model; risk allocation; Monte Carlo simulation
为了使政府和项目公司分担基础设施BOT项目的风险,提出了特许期缩短、延长、不需调整和调整失效四种情况的判别条件,在项目净现值率超过上限的情况下,以社会福利最大化为目标,构建了缩短特许期决策模型;在项目净现值率低于下限的情况下,以项目公司收益最大化为目标,构建了延长特许期决策模型.应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对实际案例加以求解分析,并在不同的折现率水平下对实现项目预期收益的累积概率进行测算和对比,证明了在"单一"调价方法不适用的情况下通过调整特许期进行风险分担的有效性.
為瞭使政府和項目公司分擔基礎設施BOT項目的風險,提齣瞭特許期縮短、延長、不需調整和調整失效四種情況的判彆條件,在項目淨現值率超過上限的情況下,以社會福利最大化為目標,構建瞭縮短特許期決策模型;在項目淨現值率低于下限的情況下,以項目公司收益最大化為目標,構建瞭延長特許期決策模型.應用矇特卡囉模擬方法對實際案例加以求解分析,併在不同的摺現率水平下對實現項目預期收益的纍積概率進行測算和對比,證明瞭在"單一"調價方法不適用的情況下通過調整特許期進行風險分擔的有效性.
위료사정부화항목공사분담기출설시BOT항목적풍험,제출료특허기축단、연장、불수조정화조정실효사충정황적판별조건,재항목정현치솔초과상한적정황하,이사회복리최대화위목표,구건료축단특허기결책모형;재항목정현치솔저우하한적정황하,이항목공사수익최대화위목표,구건료연장특허기결책모형.응용몽특잡라모의방법대실제안례가이구해분석,병재불동적절현솔수평하대실현항목예기수익적루적개솔진행측산화대비,증명료재"단일"조개방법불괄용적정황하통과조정특허기진행풍험분담적유효성.
The criterion of concession period under the four conditions of shortening,extending,unchanged and invalid adjustment is proposed in order to make the government and project company share risk in infrastructural BOT projects.If NPVR(net present value ratio) exceeds the upper limit,the decision model is built for shortening concession period with the target of social welfare maximum.If the NPVR is under the lower limit,the decision model is built for extending concession period with the target of project company benefit maximum.Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a case for solution.Cumulative probability of realization of expected return is calculated and contrasted under different discount rate,so it proves the effectiveness of allocation of risk by the means of concession period adjustment when single price adjustment method is unsuitable.