CAJ | 학술논문

随着经济社会的发展，经济主体面临的不确定性和决策风险在不断增加，预期冲击已经成为影响经济波动的重要因素。本文尝试将预期冲击与中国经济结合起来研究，在动态一般均衡框架内探讨其动态特征，并从数量上测度其重要性。文中首先建立一个包含预期冲击的小型DSGE模型，探讨预期冲击驱动经济波动的机制及其动态特征。然后在此模型基础上，利用贝叶斯方法估计预期冲击解释改革开放以后中国经济周期波动的重要性。估计结果表明：预期冲击是改革开放以后中国经济周期波动最主要的驱动力，预期冲击可以解释超过三分之二的经济总量的波动。最后，本文在小型DSGE模型的基础上构建了一个包含更多冲击的大型DSGE模型，以考察上述结论是否稳健。结果表明，是稳健的。
수착경제사회적발전，경제주체면림적불학정성화결책풍험재불단증가，예기충격이경성위영향경제파동적중요인소。본문상시장예기충격여중국경제결합기래연구，재동태일반균형광가내탐토기동태특정，병종수량상측도기중요성。문중수선건립일개포함예기충격적소형DSGE모형，탐토예기충격구동경제파동적궤제급기동태특정。연후재차모형기출상，이용패협사방법고계예기충격해석개혁개방이후중국경제주기파동적중요성。고계결과표명：예기충격시개혁개방이후중국경제주기파동최주요적구동력，예기충격가이해석초과삼분지이적경제총량적파동。최후，본문재소형DSGE모형적기출상구건료일개포함경다충격적대형DSGE모형，이고찰상술결론시부은건。결과표명，시은건적。
In this paper, we formulate a simple DSGE model driven by news shocks. We introduce two types of real frictions （i. e. , consumption habits and investment adjustment costs） in this simple model, because the frictions are the important factors which can generate aggregate comovement. Then, based on this model, we use Bayesian methods to estimate the role of news shocks in driving China＇ s business cycles since China＇ s reform and opening up. We find that news shocks are the most important driving force of China＇ s business cycle and account for more than two thirds of predicted aggregate fluctuations. Finally, we built a large-scale DSGE model without nominal frictions in order to examine whether the conclusion of the simple model is robust. Our analysis proves that.