城市问题
城市問題
성시문제
Urban Problems
2012年
6期
17~23
,共null页
生态安全 城市化 新疆生态
生態安全 城市化 新疆生態
생태안전 성시화 신강생태
the ecological security; urbanization; the ecology in XinJiang
在搜集1990年到2007年新疆生态安全和城市化数据的基础上,通过建立VAR模型,对城镇化和生态安全之间的关系进行了协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析,得到以下结论：生态安全和城镇化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;城镇化是促进生态安全的格兰杰原因;城镇化和生态安全之间存在一个相互影响的过程,但城镇化对生态安全扰动的响应小于生态安全对城镇化扰动的响应,且随着时间的推移,生态安全和城镇化的当期值均对对方的未来值产生正向扰动,即二者在一定程度上可以相互促进。
在搜集1990年到2007年新疆生態安全和城市化數據的基礎上,通過建立VAR模型,對城鎮化和生態安全之間的關繫進行瞭協整檢驗、格蘭傑因果檢驗、脈遲響應和方差分解分析,得到以下結論：生態安全和城鎮化之間存在長期穩定的均衡關繫;城鎮化是促進生態安全的格蘭傑原因;城鎮化和生態安全之間存在一箇相互影響的過程,但城鎮化對生態安全擾動的響應小于生態安全對城鎮化擾動的響應,且隨著時間的推移,生態安全和城鎮化的噹期值均對對方的未來值產生正嚮擾動,即二者在一定程度上可以相互促進。
재수집1990년도2007년신강생태안전화성시화수거적기출상,통과건립VAR모형,대성진화화생태안전지간적관계진행료협정검험、격란걸인과검험、맥충향응화방차분해분석,득도이하결론：생태안전화성진화지간존재장기은정적균형관계;성진화시촉진생태안전적격란걸원인;성진화화생태안전지간존재일개상호영향적과정,단성진화대생태안전우동적향응소우생태안전대성진화우동적향응,차수착시간적추이,생태안전화성진화적당기치균대대방적미래치산생정향우동,즉이자재일정정도상가이상호촉진。
This article analyzes the data about the ecological security and the urbanization from 1990 to 2007, and gets the following conclusions between the cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition through the VAR model. Firstly, the ecological security and urbanization have a long - term stability of equilibrium between relations; Secondly, the urbanization is granger reasons of promoting the ecological safety; Thirdly, the urbanization and the ecological security have a mutual influence between the process of urbanization, and the response of the urbanization to ecological security is less than the response of the ecological security to urbanization. As time passes by, the current value of the ecological security and urbanization can produce positive influence.
