经济理论与经济管理
經濟理論與經濟管理
경제이론여경제관리
Economic Theory and Business Management
2012年
6期
15~22
,共null页
经济周期 拐点识别 机制转换 平滑转换
經濟週期 枴點識彆 機製轉換 平滑轉換
경제주기 괴점식별 궤제전환 평활전환
business cycle; identification of the turning point; regime switch; smooth transition
本文应用平滑转换模型（STR）对我国经济周期的运行特点及拐点识别进行深入研究，并成功识别出经济周期拐点。研究发现我国GDP机制转换发生在自身滞后1期，增长率9．6％是扩张与收缩的临界点；固定投资机制转换发生在自身的滞后4期，增长率19％是扩张与收缩的临界点；固定资产投资对GDP的拉动效应具有较为缓慢的调整特征和滞后效应，机制转换发生在固定资产投资的滞后2期。
本文應用平滑轉換模型（STR）對我國經濟週期的運行特點及枴點識彆進行深入研究，併成功識彆齣經濟週期枴點。研究髮現我國GDP機製轉換髮生在自身滯後1期，增長率9．6％是擴張與收縮的臨界點；固定投資機製轉換髮生在自身的滯後4期，增長率19％是擴張與收縮的臨界點；固定資產投資對GDP的拉動效應具有較為緩慢的調整特徵和滯後效應，機製轉換髮生在固定資產投資的滯後2期。
본문응용평활전환모형（STR）대아국경제주기적운행특점급괴점식별진행심입연구，병성공식별출경제주기괴점。연구발현아국GDP궤제전환발생재자신체후1기，증장솔9．6％시확장여수축적림계점；고정투자궤제전환발생재자신적체후4기，증장솔19％시확장여수축적림계점；고정자산투자대GDP적랍동효응구유교위완만적조정특정화체후효응，궤제전환발생재고정자산투자적체후2기。
Based on smooth transition regression model, this paper studied systematically the identifi- cation of the turning point of China＇s business cycles. The empirical results showed that the regime switc- hing of GDP took place in lagged one period, the growth rate of middle value of expansion and depression was 9. 6%; the regime switching of the fixed investments took place in lagged four periods, the growth rate of middle value of expansion and depression was 19%; the fixed investments could promote economic slowly, and the transition location of GDP took place in lagged two periods of the fixed investments.
