CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过构建包含环境约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了生产技术和环保技术冲击对一国主要宏观变量的影响。研究发现：（1）生产技术冲击对经济发展的促进作用是直接的、主要的,而对污染排放量的增长效应则是间接的、次要的,最优污染排放变动具有顺周期性;（2）环保技术冲击对经济的推动作用是间接的、次要的,而对污染排放量的限制作用则是直接的、主要的,最优污染排放变动具有逆周期性;（3）在两类冲击共同作用下,环保技术冲击的减排效应短期显著,而生产技术冲击的增长效应则长期占优,但两类冲击对全球污染存量变动的影响都十分微弱,经济波动周期维持在十年左右。
문장통과구건포함배경약속적동태수궤일반균형모형,분석료생산기술화배보기술충격대일국주요굉관변량적영향。연구발현：（1）생산기술충격대경제발전적촉진작용시직접적、주요적,이대오염배방량적증장효응칙시간접적、차요적,최우오염배방변동구유순주기성;（2）배보기술충격대경제적추동작용시간접적、차요적,이대오염배방량적한제작용칙시직접적、주요적,최우오염배방변동구유역주기성;（3）재량류충격공동작용하,배보기술충격적감배효응단기현저,이생산기술충격적증장효응칙장기점우,단량류충격대전구오염존량변동적영향도십분미약,경제파동주기유지재십년좌우。
This paper analyzes the effects of production and environment protection technology shocks on main macroeconomic variables in a country by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under envi ronment constraints. The results are as follows： firstly, production of economic development and indirect and minor effect on the increase inpollution emissions; the change in optimal pollution emissions is character ized by properiodicity; secondly, environment protection technology shock has indirect and minor effect on the promotion of economic development and direct and main effect on the reduction in pollution emissions~ the change in optimal pollution emissions is characterized by inverse periodicity; thirdly, owing to these two shocks, the effect of environment protection technology shock on the reduction in pollution emissions is significant in the short term and the effect of production technology shock on the promotion of economic development is dominant in the long term but these two shocks have weak effects on the change in global pollution stock, and the period of economic fluctuations maintains about ten years.