CAJ | 학술논문

从国家公顷概念的角度出发,利用广东省与国家土地平均生物生产力的比较关系修正了传统生态足迹模型中的均衡因子与产量因子,更加准确地计算了广东省人均生态足迹及人均生态承载力及其变化趋势。结果显示,研究期内广东省土地生态供给出现持续赤字的情况,人均生态赤字呈现先下降后上升的趋势。通过人均生态赤字与人均收入建立的协整关系模型发现,广东省人均生态赤字的逐年累积效应显著,而人均收入用于消减生态赤字的效应相对滞后。因此,转变经济增长和居民消费方式仍是广东省社会、经济、环境协调发展亟需解决的关键问题。
종국가공경개념적각도출발,이용광동성여국가토지평균생물생산력적비교관계수정료전통생태족적모형중적균형인자여산량인자,경가준학지계산료광동성인균생태족적급인균생태승재력급기변화추세。결과현시,연구기내광동성토지생태공급출현지속적자적정황,인균생태적자정현선하강후상승적추세。통과인균생태적자여인균수입건립적협정관계모형발현,광동성인균생태적자적축년루적효응현저,이인균수입용우소감생태적자적효응상대체후。인차,전변경제증장화거민소비방식잉시광동성사회、경제、배경협조발전극수해결적관건문제。
From the perspective of national hectares, the paper validates the relationship of average biological production capability between Guangdong Province and the whole China, and revises the equivalence factor and yield factor of traditional ecological footprint model, to get the more accurate results of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Guangdong Province. The results show that a sustained deficit of land ecological supply is presented during the study period, and the ecological deficit shows an upward trend after a drop. Through the co-integration model of ecological deficit and income per capital, we find the cumulative effect of ecological deficit is significant, and the extinction effect of income is lagging behind. Thus, the transformation of economic growth and residents＇ consumption patterns still are the key issues of Guangdong harmonious development.