CAJ | 학술논문

本文首次创新性地研究了极值理论在我国高龄人口死亡率建模中的应用。本文首先通过考虑分段形式的生存分布，使用极大似然估计和反复试验方法来选择最优的门限年龄和模型参数估计值，以保证高龄死亡率的修匀以及外推的光滑性。其次，本文使用提出的死亡率模型分析高高龄人口死亡力的特征。最后本文探讨人类寿命分布有限上界的存在性问题，并对最高到达年龄进行了预测。该研究将为我国经验生命表的编制工作提供借鉴。
본문수차창신성지연구료겁치이론재아국고령인구사망솔건모중적응용。본문수선통과고필분단형식적생존분포，사용겁대사연고계화반복시험방법래선택최우적문한년령화모형삼수고계치，이보증고령사망솔적수균이급외추적광활성。기차，본문사용제출적사망솔모형분석고고령인구사망력적특정。최후본문탐토인류수명분포유한상계적존재성문제，병대최고도체년령진행료예측。해연구장위아국경험생명표적편제공작제공차감。
The paper proposes to study the application of extreme value theory in the modeling China＇s old-age mortality data innovatively. The proposed mortality model is usually performed in a piece-wise approach. The first piece is graduated by the Gompertz model, the second piece is an extrapolation of the graduated death rates to advanced ages by a statistical distribution that is justified by extreme value theory. Using maximum likelihood estimation method and tatonnement approach to choice the optimal threshold age and model parameter estimations, so as to ensure that the Generalized Pareto distribution and the Gompertz part are consistent with each other. Finally, the model proposed in the paper is used to analyze the behavior of the force of mortality at advanced ages, to discuss the existence of a finite upper bound on the life span distribution, and it is further extended to the prediction of highest attained age. This study will provide a guidance to construct China＇s experience life table.