CAJ | 학술논문

笔者从马歇尔、雅各布斯外部性及新经济地理的综合视角，通过建立面板VAR模型研究了我国生产性服务业集聚对城市经济增长的影响。结果表明：生产性服务业专业化、多样化和集聚规模与城市经济增长之间具有长期的均衡关系；生产性服务业专业化与多样化对经济增长具有单向因果关系；生产性服务业多样化无论在长期还是短期均促进了城市经济增长，而专业化却对经济增长产生负向效应。由于城市生产性服务业整体规模偏小，其对经济增长的规模效应尚不显著。鼓励生产性服务业多样性发展，避免同一部门的过度集聚，扩大重点生产性服务部门的运营规模可能是较为理想的政策安排。
필자종마헐이、아각포사외부성급신경제지리적종합시각，통과건립면판VAR모형연구료아국생산성복무업집취대성시경제증장적영향。결과표명：생산성복무업전업화、다양화화집취규모여성시경제증장지간구유장기적균형관계；생산성복무업전업화여다양화대경제증장구유단향인과관계；생산성복무업다양화무론재장기환시단기균촉진료성시경제증장，이전업화각대경제증장산생부향효응。유우성시생산성복무업정체규모편소，기대경제증장적규모효응상불현저。고려생산성복무업다양성발전，피면동일부문적과도집취，확대중점생산성복무부문적운영규모가능시교위이상적정책안배。
Abstract： From the comprehensive view of Marshall externalities, Jacobs externalities and new economic geography,a dynamic econo- metric analysis is made on the effect of the agglomeration of producer services on economic growth across 286 prefectural or higher level cities for the period of 2000 - 2009 in China based on panel data VAR model. The results show that there exist long-term equilibrium relationships between the scale of producer services, specialization agglomeration and variety agglomeration of producer services and the local economic growth. And there exists one-way causality relationship between the agglomeration of producer services and economic growth. The variety agglomeration other than specialization agglomeration promotes economic growth. Because the total size of producer services is small, the scale effects of producer services on economic growth are not significant. Encouraging diversification of producer services in cities and avoiding over-agglomeration in the same sector, enlarging the scale of some important service sectors may he the expected policies.