经济经纬
經濟經緯
경제경위
Economic Survey
2012年
4期
126~130
,共null页
信贷市场利率 经济波动 向量自回归模型
信貸市場利率 經濟波動 嚮量自迴歸模型
신대시장리솔 경제파동 향량자회귀모형
Credit Market Interest Rates; Economic Fluctuations; Vector Auto Regression Model
笔者基于VAR模型对我国信贷市场利率与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明：（1）信贷市场利率对投资、消费均处于负向冲击并有时滞，但对投资的影响更显著。投资、消费对信贷市场利率的影响非常有限。（2）投资波动对产出波动起主要作用；产出对投资波动和消费波动的影响程度有限；投资波动影响消费波动的程度远远大于后者对前者。基于这些分析结论，笔者提出若干政策建议。
筆者基于VAR模型對我國信貸市場利率與經濟波動的關繫進行實證分析。研究結果錶明：（1）信貸市場利率對投資、消費均處于負嚮遲擊併有時滯，但對投資的影響更顯著。投資、消費對信貸市場利率的影響非常有限。（2）投資波動對產齣波動起主要作用；產齣對投資波動和消費波動的影響程度有限；投資波動影響消費波動的程度遠遠大于後者對前者。基于這些分析結論，筆者提齣若榦政策建議。
필자기우VAR모형대아국신대시장리솔여경제파동적관계진행실증분석。연구결과표명：（1）신대시장리솔대투자、소비균처우부향충격병유시체，단대투자적영향경현저。투자、소비대신대시장리솔적영향비상유한。（2）투자파동대산출파동기주요작용；산출대투자파동화소비파동적영향정도유한；투자파동영향소비파동적정도원원대우후자대전자。기우저사분석결론，필자제출약간정책건의。
This paper empirically analysizes of the relationship between the credit market interest rates and economic lluctuatlons by VAR model. The results of the study indicate that ： （1） credit market interest rates on investment and consumption are in a negative and obvious impact with certain delay. And the impact on credit market interest rates from investment and consumption is very limited. （2） Investment fluctuations play a major role on output cycles. Output cycles have an impact on investment and consumption fluctua- tions but to a limited extent. The degree of investment fluctuations affecting consumption fluctuations is far greater than the latter on the former. Policy proposal made on these conclusions.
