CAJ | 학술논문

本文引入银行中介部门优化行为，建立了一个内生信贷需求与供给的金融经济周期模型，分析经济波动和货币政策对金融总量、经济总量、货币乘数等的影响。比较静态分析发现，准备金率具有逆周期特征。动态分析发现，货币创新与准备金率提高具有相互抵消效应。通过中国数据校准参数后进行模拟发现，单纯的法定准备金率调整政策不仅不能有效抚平信贷市场波动，反而可能会造成信贷市场的不稳定。同时模型经济还预测到金融部门的活动对经济会产生巨大影响，而恰当的货币手段和准备金率手段的组合使用可以达到稳定经济的目标。对中国数据的实证分析表明，模型经济的主要特征同实际经济特征具有较好的一致性。
본문인입은행중개부문우화행위，건립료일개내생신대수구여공급적금융경제주기모형，분석경제파동화화폐정책대금융총량、경제총량、화폐승수등적영향。비교정태분석발현，준비금솔구유역주기특정。동태분석발현，화폐창신여준비금솔제고구유상호저소효응。통과중국수거교준삼수후진행모의발현，단순적법정준비금솔조정정책불부불능유효무평신대시장파동，반이가능회조성신대시장적불은정。동시모형경제환예측도금융부문적활동대경제회산생거대영향，이흡당적화폐수단화준비금솔수단적조합사용가이체도은정경제적목표。대중국수거적실증분석표명，모형경제적주요특정동실제경제특정구유교호적일치성。
This paper establishes an endogenous-credit financial business cycle model, to study how different monetary policies and economic fluctuations affect financial aggregate variables, economic aggregate variables, and monetary multiplier. By comparative static analysis, we find that deposit-reserve ratio is eountercyclical. By dynamic analysis, this paper shows that monetary innovation and the increase of deposit-reserve ratio cancel each other out. This paper fits the model to China data, and finds that the policies simply adjusting deposit-reserve ratio can not smooth the fluctuations, instead of being the cause of the instability of credit market. The model also predicts the activities of financial sectors greatly affect the economy, and the suitable combination of monetary policies and deposit-reserve ratio polices can stable the economy. This explains the procyclieal feature of the monetary innovation and the change of the deposit-reserve ratio. The empirical analysis shows the key features of the model fits the facts of real economy well.