CAJ | 학술논문

选取不同收入水平城镇居民1998～2009年的收入、消费面板数据,考察房价波动对收入和消费的影响,引入宏观经济和房屋抵押效应控制变量,利用房屋租赁价格构造房屋销售价格的工具变量进行实证研究。结果表明：房价波动下城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。
선취불동수입수평성진거민1998～2009년적수입、소비면판수거,고찰방개파동대수입화소비적영향,인입굉관경제화방옥저압효응공제변량,이용방옥조임개격구조방옥소수개격적공구변량진행실증연구。결과표명：방개파동하성진거민인균가지배수입여소비간존재필연적인과관계,불동수입수평적성진거민존재명현적소비차이。방개상창대소유수입수평성진거민적소비균유제출효응,방옥재부효응칙불명현,당기가지배수입시결정성진거민방지산소비적최중요인소。
We adopts income data and consumption panel data of urban residents of different income levels from 1998 to 2009 to examine the impact of housing price fluctuation on income and consumption. In addition, the study introduces macro-economy and house mortgage effect to control variables. This empirical research is carried out with the use of real estate rent and leasing price to construct the instrumental variable of house selling prices. The result shows under house price fluctuation there is a kind of necessary causal relationship between per capita disposable income and consumption for urban residents. Specifically, there are great consumption differences among urban residents of different income levels. Finally, the rising of house price has a crowding-out effect on urban residents consumption; however, the house wealth effect is not evident. The current income is a key factor in deciding urban real estate consumption.