CAJ | 학술논문

本文首先构建关于实际外部财富、劳动生产率、贸易条件与实际汇率关系的跨时一般均衡理论模型，然后利用1981—2009年相关时间序列数据，检验中国实际外部财富、贸易条件以及国内外两部门劳动生产率对人民币实际汇率的影响。结果表明，从长期看，中国实际外部财富的急剧攀升会引发人民币实际汇率快速升值；中国贸易部门相对非贸易部门劳动生产率上升会促使人民币实际汇率升值，而国外贸易部门相对非贸易部门的劳动生产率提高则会降低人民币实际汇率，净效应表现为劳动生产率并不能解释20世纪80年代以来人民币实际汇率的长期波动；中国贸易条件对人民币实际汇率的影响不明显。短期内，中国实际外部财富对人民币实际汇率的作用关系与长期一致。根据上述结论，本文提出了保持人民币实际汇率相对稳定的政策建议。
본문수선구건관우실제외부재부、노동생산솔、무역조건여실제회솔관계적과시일반균형이론모형，연후이용1981—2009년상관시간서렬수거，검험중국실제외부재부、무역조건이급국내외량부문노동생산솔대인민폐실제회솔적영향。결과표명，종장기간，중국실제외부재부적급극반승회인발인민폐실제회솔쾌속승치；중국무역부문상대비무역부문노동생산솔상승회촉사인민폐실제회솔승치，이국외무역부문상대비무역부문적노동생산솔제고칙회강저인민폐실제회솔，정효응표현위노동생산솔병불능해석20세기80년대이래인민폐실제회솔적장기파동；중국무역조건대인민폐실제회솔적영향불명현。단기내，중국실제외부재부대인민폐실제회솔적작용관계여장기일치。근거상술결론，본문제출료보지인민폐실제회솔상대은정적정책건의。
Based on an intertemporal general equilibrium model,using Johansen cointegrating technique and Granger causality test, this paper investigates the relations between China＇ s real external wealth,terms of trade,labor productivity and RMB real exehange rate from 1981 to 2009. Empirical test shows that in the long run, increasing quickly in China＇ s real external wealth leads to RMB real appreciation significantly. Relative Labor Productivity of China＇ s tradable sector is related to RMB real exchange rate positively. But relative labor productivity of foreign tradable sector is related to RMB real exchange rate negatively. Net effect of labor productivity on the RMB real exchange rate is weak. There is no causal relation between China＇ s terms of trade and RMB real exchange rate. In the short run,the relationship between China＇ s real external wealth and RMB real exehange rate is same as the longrun relationship.