CAJ | 학술논문

人民币汇率的变动会影响中国的国际收支，进而对人民币供给形成冲击，即产生人民币汇率的货币供给效应。本文从静态和动态两个层面对人民币汇率的货币供给效应强度及其传递效果进行实证研究。结果表明，人民币汇率变动具有比较稳定的货币供给效应，这一效应随着人民币汇率弹性的增大而有所增强；从传递效果来看，人民币汇率对国际收支的作用效力较弱，而国际收支与货币供给的关联性很强，说明人民币汇率的货币供给效应在人民币汇率作用于国际收支这一传递环节发生了较大减损。为控制人民币汇率变动对货币供给的不利扰动，近期首先要加强对资本流人的监管，增强人民币汇率变动对国际收支影响的预期的准确性和可控性；其次是推进中国的外汇储备形成机制改革，切断或弱化困际收支影响货币供给的传递路径。从长远来看，要增强人民币汇率的调节作用，促进周际收支平衡。
인민폐회솔적변동회영향중국적국제수지，진이대인민폐공급형성충격，즉산생인민폐회솔적화폐공급효응。본문종정태화동태량개층면대인민폐회솔적화폐공급효응강도급기전체효과진행실증연구。결과표명，인민폐회솔변동구유비교은정적화폐공급효응，저일효응수착인민폐회솔탄성적증대이유소증강；종전체효과래간，인민폐회솔대국제수지적작용효력교약，이국제수지여화폐공급적관련성흔강，설명인민폐회솔적화폐공급효응재인민폐회솔작용우국제수지저일전체배절발생료교대감손。위공제인민폐회솔변동대화폐공급적불리우동，근기수선요가강대자본류인적감관，증강인민폐회솔변동대국제수지영향적예기적준학성화가공성；기차시추진중국적외회저비형성궤제개혁，절단혹약화곤제수지영향화폐공급적전체로경。종장원래간，요증강인민폐회솔적조절작용，촉진주제수지평형。
： The fluctuation of exchange rate will influence China＇s balance of payments, and also impact the money supply, which is the money supply effect of exchange rate. From the static and dynamic aspects, this paper makes empirical analyses on the intensity and transmission impact of money supply effect. The paper shows that： the exchange rate ilas a relatively stable effect on money supply, which will improve with the enhancing flexibility of exchange rate. From the transmission impaet, the influence of exchange rate on China＇s balance of payments is not significant. While there is a high correlation between the balance of payment and money supply, we argue that in the process of exchange rate＇ action on balance of payments, the money supply effect has been greatly impaired. To control the adverse turbulence of exchange rate fluctuation on money supply, in the near future, we should firstly strengthen the supervision of capital inflows, and enhance the accuracy and controllability of the anticipation about the exchange rate fluctuation on China＇s balance of payments. We should secondly advance the reform of foreign exchange reserve formation mechanism, cut off or impair the transmission path of balance of payments＇ influence on money supply. In the long run, we shouht strengthen the adjustment role of RMB exchange rate and promote the balance of international payments