CAJ | 학술논문

能源对中国经济快速发展的瓶颈效应逐渐显现出来，正确把握好能源消费与经济增长的关系并出台高效的经济引导政策对中国经济的可持续稳定发展具有战略意义。遵循格兰杰因果关系检验的前提假设，采用协整检验和误差修正模型可以对中国经济增长与能源消费的内在依从关系进行动态分析。结果表明：1978～2010年间存在从国内生产总值到能源消费总量和煤炭消费量的单向格兰杰因果关系。同时利用相应误差修正模型进行动态预测得出2020年前中国能源消费总量年均增长率将达到5％左右，煤炭消费量年均增速约为7％。
능원대중국경제쾌속발전적병경효응축점현현출래，정학파악호능원소비여경제증장적관계병출태고효적경제인도정책대중국경제적가지속은정발전구유전략의의。준순격란걸인과관계검험적전제가설，채용협정검험화오차수정모형가이대중국경제증장여능원소비적내재의종관계진행동태분석。결과표명：1978～2010년간존재종국내생산총치도능원소비총량화매탄소비량적단향격란걸인과관계。동시이용상응오차수정모형진행동태예측득출2020년전중국능원소비총량년균증장솔장체도5％좌우，매탄소비량년균증속약위7％。
The bottleneck effect of energy on the rapid development of China＇s economy appears gradually, so it is of strategic significance for the sustainable and stable development of China＇s economy to correctly handle the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. This paper strictly conforms to the assumptions of Granger Causality Test, and makes a dynamic research on the inherent relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Cointegration Test and ECM. The results indicate that there is single - direction causality from GDP to total energy consumption and coal consumption respectively between 1978 dynamic forecasts in ECM demonstrate that the growth erage annual reaches to 5% and 7% respectively. rate of total energy consumption and 2010. Meanwhile, the and coal consumption in average annum reaches to 5% and 7% respectively.