CAJ | 학술논문

在订单式生产的中小制造企业中，订单的完成过程受诸多不确定因素的影响。考虑影响完工期的确定因素及随机因素，如生产时间、插单的等待时间、机械故障等待时间、误工时间、损耗率及返工率等，根据数据统计分析假定各因素服从一定的随机分布，建立了完工期区间预测模型，通过多次仿真得到了完工期区间范围。以相关原则为依据，通过比较预测完工期及客户要求交货期，做出承诺交货期及价格决策。最后进行灵敏度分析，通过仿真得到完下期均值与各随机变量对应参数的变化关系，在此基础上提出了控制完工期影响因素的措施。
재정단식생산적중소제조기업중，정단적완성과정수제다불학정인소적영향。고필영향완공기적학정인소급수궤인소，여생산시간、삽단적등대시간、궤계고장등대시간、오공시간、손모솔급반공솔등，근거수거통계분석가정각인소복종일정적수궤분포，건립료완공기구간예측모형，통과다차방진득도료완공기구간범위。이상관원칙위의거，통과비교예측완공기급객호요구교화기，주출승낙교화기급개격결책。최후진행령민도분석，통과방진득도완하기균치여각수궤변량대응삼수적변화관계，재차기출상제출료공제완공기영향인소적조시。
Under make-to-order （MTO） environment, in the small-and-medium-size manufacturing enter- prises, the order fulfillment is affected by many certain and random factors such as processing time varia- tion, urgent order insertion, machine failure, scrap and rework, waiting, and so on. Based on the as- sumption that each random factor has a known stochastic distribution, a model of estimating the order com- pletion date is developed. With this model, order completion date can be obtained by simulation. Then, by considering the customer＇s delivery requirement, order due date and price can be determined. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to understand the interrelations among the mean order completion date and the uncertain factors. Finally, suggestions are given for how to control the uncertain factors.