CAJ | 학술논문

人口年龄结构趋于老龄化和人均预期寿命逐步增长是目前我国人口发展的两个典型特征，而年龄阶段不同，个人的收入、消费与储蓄行为也不同。基于生命周期理论，在选定相关分析指标的基础上，文章使用我国省际平衡面板数据，实证分析了我国人口预期寿命增长和年龄结构改变对国民储蓄率的影响。分析结论表明，人口预期寿命增长提高了我国国民储蓄率；不考虑时间效应时，幼年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率，而老年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率；在考虑时间效应时，幼年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率，而老年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率。对此，文章给出了合理的解释。通过使用多种估计方法，我们发现所得到的结论是基本稳健的。
인구년령결구추우노령화화인균예기수명축보증장시목전아국인구발전적량개전형특정，이년령계단불동，개인적수입、소비여저축행위야불동。기우생명주기이론，재선정상관분석지표적기출상，문장사용아국성제평형면판수거，실증분석료아국인구예기수명증장화년령결구개변대국민저축솔적영향。분석결론표명，인구예기수명증장제고료아국국민저축솔；불고필시간효응시，유년인구부담비제고회감소국민저축솔，이노년인구부담비제고회증가국민저축솔；재고필시간효응시，유년인구부담비제고회증가국민저축솔，이노년인구부담비제고회감소국민저축솔。대차，문장급출료합리적해석。통과사용다충고계방법，아문발현소득도적결론시기본은건적。
Two of the population trends in China are population aging and increasing life expectan- cy. There are differing patterns of income, consumption and savings across different age periods. U- sing inter- provincial balance panel data, this paper analyzes the influence on the savings rate by the life expectancy growth and age structure changes basing on the theory of life cycle. Theory analysis shows that Life expectancy growth improves the steady state savings, and age structure change af- fects individual saving behavior. The empirical analysis revealed that the increase of child population rates reduces national saving rate and the increase of old population rates improves national saving rate when the time effect is not controlled, while the increase of child population rates improves national saving rate and the increase of old population rates reduces national saving rate when the time effect is considered. The paper provideds a reasonable explanation to this conclusion. Testing using a variety of estimation methods and a range of combinations of related variable, we find that the conclusions obtained in this paper are robust.