CAJ | 학술논문

赴港生子是近年来中国大陆出现的新的入口现象，且多是能领社会风习之先的富人所为，其中必具诸多预示性内涵。文章通过现象解析、模型推演，证明在存在性别偏好的条件下，孩子的数量质量替代率下降；放宽约束条件后，富人更具多生的潜能；进而对理性家庭最优生育选择必将导致的生育公地悲剧展开理论探讨；并佐以浙江省近年来人口发展资料，揭示出在目前我国人口发展新情境中，部分富人，尤其是民营企业主的生育意愿有被激活且渐行释放的迹象，经济发达地区的生育率似有持续走高之势，生育率反弹的势能似在不断增强。藉此，应该继续维持现有政策执行力，增强新型生育文化的引致力。
부항생자시근년래중국대륙출현적신적입구현상，차다시능령사회풍습지선적부인소위，기중필구제다예시성내함。문장통과현상해석、모형추연，증명재존재성별편호적조건하，해자적수량질량체대솔하강；방관약속조건후，부인경구다생적잠능；진이대이성가정최우생육선택필장도치적생육공지비극전개이론탐토；병좌이절강성근년래인구발전자료，게시출재목전아국인구발전신정경중，부분부인，우기시민영기업주적생육의원유피격활차점행석방적적상，경제발체지구적생육솔사유지속주고지세，생육솔반탄적세능사재불단증강。자차，응해계속유지현유정책집행력，증강신형생육문화적인치력。
The emerging population phenomenon involving more and more mainland women going to Hong Kong to give birth provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to reveal new insights into and implications for future population growth and development. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first linking the phenomenon of ＂Giving Birth in Hong Kong＂ to the theory of ＂Tragedy of the Commons＂. Through systematic analysis and model deduction, we aim to demonstrate two main points： First, the quality quantity substitution rate of children is expected to decrease under the condi- tion of gender preference~ Second, the rich people would have more intentions to reproduce if family planning constraints are to be loosen. Accordingly, a theoretical exploration is conduded on the theory of the tragedy of the commons caused by the family＇s rational reproductive choice. This study warns that birth rate tends to be going up in the economically developed areas, and as such, there is increas- ing potential of fertility rate bing rebounding. Therefore, we should stick tightly to the population control policy while strengthening family planning policy implementation and enhancing the new fertility culture.