CAJ | 학술논문

本文以新古典生产函数为基础，将全要素生产率、资本和劳动产出弹性看做可变参数，利用中国省际面板数据，选取改革开放后的三个跨时期为样本区间，建立了三个跨时期可变参数总量生产函数模型。结果表明要素产出弹性参数和全要素生产率参数是随时间而变化的，而且生产技术处于规模报酬递增状态。并且未来10年的变动趋势表明资本产出弹性趋向减小，而劳动产出弹性趋向增大。整体反映出我国经济增长方式的转变趋势。
본문이신고전생산함수위기출，장전요소생산솔、자본화노동산출탄성간주가변삼수，이용중국성제면판수거，선취개혁개방후적삼개과시기위양본구간，건립료삼개과시기가변삼수총량생산함수모형。결과표명요소산출탄성삼수화전요소생산솔삼수시수시간이변화적，이차생산기술처우규모보수체증상태。병차미래10년적변동추세표명자본산출탄성추향감소，이노동산출탄성추향증대。정체반영출아국경제증장방식적전변추세。
In this paper, the parametrics are to be regarded as Variable. With the panel data of 30 provinces through 1978-2009, 1989-2009 and 1995-2009 in china, the author makes three models of the variable parametric productive function, based on the C-D product function. ity of production requisites and the total The conclusion reflects the output elasticfactor productivity are varying with time. And the technology of producing is in the stage of increasing returns to scale. Moreover, the change trend of the predicated parameter indicat the important shift in the future of 10 years. The output elasticity of capital will decrease, and the output elasticity of labour will increase. At last, the output elasticity of labour will exceed the output elasticity of capital. As a whole, the economic growth pattern of China is in the transition from extensive type to intensive type in China.