CAJ | 학술논문

构造并运用放松约束的变量系数PCS引力模型，从关税削减角度，分析双边自由贸易区建设对我国水果和坚果产品进出口贸易的影响。研究发现：双边贸易自由化给果品产业发展带来的机遇与挑战并存，关税削减对中国果品进口贸易的影响大于对出口的影响；正在考虑建设的自由贸区一旦建成并在关税上做出较大让步，会有力地促进中国的果品进出口贸易；中国与特惠贸易协定签约国之间的果品贸易中，贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应并存，非关税的贸易便利化措施是中国与部分签约国果品贸易发展的主要推动力。
구조병운용방송약속적변량계수PCS인력모형，종관세삭감각도，분석쌍변자유무역구건설대아국수과화견과산품진출구무역적영향。연구발현：쌍변무역자유화급과품산업발전대래적궤우여도전병존，관세삭감대중국과품진구무역적영향대우대출구적영향；정재고필건설적자유무구일단건성병재관세상주출교대양보，회유력지촉진중국적과품진출구무역；중국여특혜무역협정첨약국지간적과품무역중，무역창조효응여무역전이효응병존，비관세적무역편리화조시시중국여부분첨약국과품무역발전적주요추동력。
This paper built a new pooled-cross-section model, which was used to analyze the impact of preferential trade agreements on import and export of China＇s fruits and nuts. It found that： Trade liberalization brought opportunities and challenges to fruits and nuts industry, and the impact of tariff reductions on China＇s fruits and nuts import was much larger than on export. Once the considering preferential trade agreements established and both members made concessions in tariffS, there would be a sharp increase in China＇s fruits and nuts import and export. Trade creation effect and diversion effect occurs simultaneously. For some members singed preferential trade agreements with China,non-tariff trade facilitation measures were the main drivring force for trade development.