中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2012年
9期
108~115
,共null页
劳动力回流 农村非农就业 Logistic模型 云浮市
勞動力迴流 農村非農就業 Logistic模型 雲浮市
노동력회류 농촌비농취업 Logistic모형 운부시
return of migration; rural non-agricultural employment; Logistic model; Yunfu City
改革开放以来，中国大规模的从农村向城镇的人口流动对资源的优化配置和经济快速发展产生了深远的影响。然而，中国的农村劳动力流动正逐渐从单向转变为城乡双向流动的格局。这一变化将深刻影响我国农村地区的发展前景。本文运用广东省西部山区云浮市的农户调查数据，通过构建Logistic非农就业决策模型，探讨劳动力回流对于农村地区非农就业发展的影响。实证结果表明，劳动力的回流的确促进了农村非农就业的发展，对于那些2000年以后回流、在外务工时间较长、变换工作次数较多的具有丰富外出工作经历的回流者尤其如此。这些劳动力在外务工过程中．实现了人力资本的积累。促进其回流后对农村非农经济的参与。随着时间的推移，新生代农民工逐渐成为农村外出劳动力的主体，在新的劳动力流动格局下。农村劳动力的这种特征转变将促使劳动力在回流后加速向非农产业转移。推动欠发达地区县域经济的发展。最后。本文就如何适应新的劳动力市场趋势提出了相应的对策建议。
改革開放以來，中國大規模的從農村嚮城鎮的人口流動對資源的優化配置和經濟快速髮展產生瞭深遠的影響。然而，中國的農村勞動力流動正逐漸從單嚮轉變為城鄉雙嚮流動的格跼。這一變化將深刻影響我國農村地區的髮展前景。本文運用廣東省西部山區雲浮市的農戶調查數據，通過構建Logistic非農就業決策模型，探討勞動力迴流對于農村地區非農就業髮展的影響。實證結果錶明，勞動力的迴流的確促進瞭農村非農就業的髮展，對于那些2000年以後迴流、在外務工時間較長、變換工作次數較多的具有豐富外齣工作經歷的迴流者尤其如此。這些勞動力在外務工過程中．實現瞭人力資本的積纍。促進其迴流後對農村非農經濟的參與。隨著時間的推移，新生代農民工逐漸成為農村外齣勞動力的主體，在新的勞動力流動格跼下。農村勞動力的這種特徵轉變將促使勞動力在迴流後加速嚮非農產業轉移。推動欠髮達地區縣域經濟的髮展。最後。本文就如何適應新的勞動力市場趨勢提齣瞭相應的對策建議。
개혁개방이래，중국대규모적종농촌향성진적인구류동대자원적우화배치화경제쾌속발전산생료심원적영향。연이，중국적농촌노동력류동정축점종단향전변위성향쌍향류동적격국。저일변화장심각영향아국농촌지구적발전전경。본문운용광동성서부산구운부시적농호조사수거，통과구건Logistic비농취업결책모형，탐토노동력회류대우농촌지구비농취업발전적영향。실증결과표명，노동력적회류적학촉진료농촌비농취업적발전，대우나사2000년이후회류、재외무공시간교장、변환공작차수교다적구유봉부외출공작경력적회류자우기여차。저사노동력재외무공과정중．실현료인력자본적적루。촉진기회류후대농촌비농경제적삼여。수착시간적추이，신생대농민공축점성위농촌외출노동력적주체，재신적노동력류동격국하。농촌노동력적저충특정전변장촉사노동력재회류후가속향비농산업전이。추동흠발체지구현역경제적발전。최후。본문취여하괄응신적노동력시장추세제출료상응적대책건의。
Mass migration movements from countryside to city have exerted an enormous influence to the allocation of resources and economic development in China since Reform and Opening-up. However, the structure of rural labor migration in China has transformed to a city-countryside bidirectional flow from a unidirectional one. This change will profoundly affect the economic development of rural districts in China. This study, using recent data of a peasant-household-survey in Yunfu City, explores what influence of the return of migration contributes to rural non-agriculture economic development by the way of establishing the Logistic model for non-agricultural employment behavior of rural labor. The empirical result shows that the returning workers, especially those who have a rich outside working experience and returned after the year of 2000, surely promote the development of rural non-farm industry. Those workers made an accumulation of human capital in the process of out-migration, which facilitated their participation in the non-agriculture economic development after their returning. As time goes by, the new migration workers have become the main body of out-migration. Under the new structure of migration, these features of rural laborers will promote them to shift to non-agriculture industry after their returning, and then promote the development of county economy in underdeveloped areas. Finally, we put forward corresponding suggestions according to the new trends of labor market.
