CAJ | 학술논문

中国当前的经济增速放缓具有长期化趋势：在基准情形下，预计中国“十二五”和“十三五”时期的平均潜在经济增速较2000--2010年将分别下滑2．3个和4个百分点。造成经济增速放缓的原因是：总需求中的出口和投资增速显著放缓；低成本优势逐渐消失和全要素生产率增速显著下降；政府对经济增长的推动作用将可能有所减弱。在中国社会仍然具有较强“增长依赖症”的情况下，经济增速的显著降低将严重威胁社会稳定；同时，经济增速放缓也会造成社会精英的大量流失。目前，应该从两方面来应对经济增速放缓：一是通过行政体制改革促进经济发展方式的转变，在传统的增长动力逐渐衰减的过程中及时为经济增长提供新的动力；二是积极推进社会改革以降低社会稳定对经济高速增长的依赖。
중국당전적경제증속방완구유장기화추세：재기준정형하，예계중국“십이오”화“십삼오”시기적평균잠재경제증속교2000--2010년장분별하활2．3개화4개백분점。조성경제증속방완적원인시：총수구중적출구화투자증속현저방완；저성본우세축점소실화전요소생산솔증속현저하강；정부대경제증장적추동작용장가능유소감약。재중국사회잉연구유교강“증장의뢰증”적정황하，경제증속적현저강저장엄중위협사회은정；동시，경제증속방완야회조성사회정영적대량류실。목전，응해종량방면래응대경제증속방완：일시통과행정체제개혁촉진경제발전방식적전변，재전통적증장동력축점쇠감적과정중급시위경제증장제공신적동력；이시적겁추진사회개혁이강저사회은정대경제고속증장적의뢰。
China＇s economic growth slowdown will continue in the future： in the baseline model, the potential economic growth rate will decline by 2.3 and 4 percentage points in the 12tb and 13th five- year plan period compared with the 2000--2010 period. The reasons are： the growth rate of export and investment will slow down distinctively; low-cost advantage will cease to exist and the growth rate of TFP will decline; government＇s role in promoting economic growth may be weakened. Under the situa- tion that the society still has strong ＂growth dependency syndrome＂ in the future, the large reduction of the economic growth will seriously undermine social stability, and economic growth slowdown will also cause a huge loss of social elites. There are two ways to deal with the challenges of economic growth slowdown： First, transform the economic growth mode by administrative system reform to prevent a ＂hard landing＂, and secondly, promote social reform to strengthen social stability and reduce the dependence of the society on economic growth.