CAJ | 학술논문

自2010年以来，美国先后两次对中国风电产品提起调查，认为其对美相关产业造成冲击，中美贸易摩擦焦点已经转移到清洁能源领域。文章以风力发电机组为例，选取2002年到2011年的4组时间序列数据，对美国进口中国风电产品与美国国产品之间的Armington替代弹性进行了估计。通过运用估计得出的Armington弹性检验进口品与国产品的互替和互补关系，我们分析得出当前中国风电产品与美国国产品并不是互替的关系，而是互补的关系，进口中国风电产品反而会给美国带来较大的进口福利；同时从长期来看，随着我国风电产品生产技术不断提高，我国风电产品将会替代美国国产品，中美风电贸易关系将从互补性转向竞争替代。因此我国风电企业必须同政府及行业协会积极应对中美风电贸易摩擦。
자2010년이래，미국선후량차대중국풍전산품제기조사，인위기대미상관산업조성충격，중미무역마찰초점이경전이도청길능원영역。문장이풍력발전궤조위례，선취2002년도2011년적4조시간서렬수거，대미국진구중국풍전산품여미국국산품지간적Armington체대탄성진행료고계。통과운용고계득출적Armington탄성검험진구품여국산품적호체화호보관계，아문분석득출당전중국풍전산품여미국국산품병불시호체적관계，이시호보적관계，진구중국풍전산품반이회급미국대래교대적진구복리；동시종장기래간，수착아국풍전산품생산기술불단제고，아국풍전산품장회체대미국국산품，중미풍전무역관계장종호보성전향경쟁체대。인차아국풍전기업필수동정부급행업협회적겁응대중미풍전무역마찰。
Since 2010, the United States has initiated investigations on China＇s wind power products twice, claiming that the related industries in the United States have been shocked. The focus of Sino-US trade friction has shifted to the field of clean energy. In this paper, we take the wind turbine as example, selecting the time series data from 2002 to 2011, and estimate the Armington elasticity of substitution between U.S. imports of wind power products from China and U.S. domestic products. Through applying the estimated Armington elasticity to test the substitutionary and complementary relationship between imported goods and domestic products, we conclude that the relationship between China＇s wind power products and U.S. products are complementary instead of being substitutionary and import of Chinese wind power products will bring the United States large imports welfare instead; in the long run, with the fast improvement of China＇s wind power production technology, wind power products from China will replace U.S. products, and the wind power trade relationship between China and the United States will shift from being complementary to competitive substitutionary. Therefore, China＇s wind power enterprises should cooperate with government and industry associations to cope with the Sino-US trade friction of wind power proactively.