CAJ | 학술논문

在21世纪，我国将面临严峻的人口总量下降和人口老龄化的挑战。根据联合国《世界人口前景展望（2010年修正版）》关于中国人口的中方案和低方案预测，在2015年前后，我国劳动年龄人口总量将开始下降；在2025年前后，我国人口将开始负增长；在21世纪末，我国人口总量将降为5—9亿；在21世纪中叶后我国65岁及以上老年人口占总人口的比例将高达30％--40％以上。本文对这些重要的人口变动，以及这些变动将对我国未来的经济增长、社会保障体制、代际福利、城市化和人口的区域分布等产生的重大影响进行了描述性分析，并提出了相关政策建议。
재21세기，아국장면림엄준적인구총량하강화인구노령화적도전。근거연합국《세계인구전경전망（2010년수정판）》관우중국인구적중방안화저방안예측，재2015년전후，아국노동년령인구총량장개시하강；재2025년전후，아국인구장개시부증장；재21세기말，아국인구총량장강위5—9억；재21세기중협후아국65세급이상노년인구점총인구적비례장고체30％--40％이상。본문대저사중요적인구변동，이급저사변동장대아국미래적경제증장、사회보장체제、대제복리、성시화화인구적구역분포등산생적중대영향진행료묘술성분석，병제출료상관정책건의。
China is going to face severe challenges of decreasing population and of population ageing in the 21st Century. As indicated by the medium variant and low variant of China＇ s population projections in the UN World Population Prospects （2010 revision） , the size of China＇ s working-age population will begin to decrease around 2015 and the size of the total population will begin to decrease around 2025. At the end of this century, China＇ s population will shrink to merely 500 - 900 million. The elderly population aged 65 and older will account for as high as over 30 percent to 40 percent of the total population in the second half of this century. This paper is intended to provide a rough overview and analysis on these changes and their great impacts on future economic growth, social security system, intergenerational welfare, urbanization and spatial distribution of the population. This paper concludes with some concerning policy suggestions.