CAJ | 학술논문

成帝建始三年的＂闹洪水＂和哀帝建平四年的＂传行诏筹＂,是两起典型的群体性恐慌事件。＂闹洪水＂发生在京城,一天之内从社会下层一直闹到皇宫里。＂传行诏筹＂从春天闹腾到秋天,波及全国四分之一的地方,是一起经过精心组织、妖言不断放大而制造出来的群体性事件。两个事件清楚地表明,无论社会下层还是上流社会都面临着巨大的生存危机,社会缺乏安全感,一有风吹草动就恐慌起来。事件发生后,很快有人拿它来指责政敌,而不是采取有效措施来解决实际问题、化解社会矛盾、消弭民怨。面对此起彼伏的群体性事件,西汉各级衙门直至朝廷都得过且过、搪塞应付,采取欺下瞒上、不报、漏报、少报等办法来敷衍塞责,直到乱局不可收拾。这说明,经过二百年的运转,西汉王朝这架专制机器已经彻底腐朽,小修小补不被允许,改弦更张更不可能,王朝政治陷进了死局。体制内的变革实在行不通时,有人就在体制外另辟蹊径,社会危机最终由绿林、赤眉起义集中表达出来,为西汉王朝和新莽时代的彻底终结划上了句号。
성제건시삼년적＂료홍수＂화애제건평사년적＂전행조주＂,시량기전형적군체성공황사건。＂료홍수＂발생재경성,일천지내종사회하층일직료도황궁리。＂전행조주＂종춘천료등도추천,파급전국사분지일적지방,시일기경과정심조직、요언불단방대이제조출래적군체성사건。량개사건청초지표명,무론사회하층환시상류사회도면림착거대적생존위궤,사회결핍안전감,일유풍취초동취공황기래。사건발생후,흔쾌유인나타래지책정활,이불시채취유효조시래해결실제문제、화해사회모순、소미민원。면대차기피복적군체성사건,서한각급아문직지조정도득과차과、당새응부,채취기하만상、불보、루보、소보등판법래부연새책,직도란국불가수습。저설명,경과이백년적운전,서한왕조저가전제궤기이경철저부후,소수소보불피윤허,개현경장경불가능,왕조정치함진료사국。체제내적변혁실재행불통시,유인취재체제외령벽혜경,사회위궤최종유록림、적미기의집중표체출래,위서한왕조화신망시대적철저종결화상료구호。
In the late Western Hart Dynasty, two events caused panic among the masses as well as in the imperial court. The first resulted from a flood, and panic spread very quickly from the common people to the court within one day. The second was a plot careful- ly framed by the upper class people to attack their political opponents. When the events occurred, officials at all levels tried to shift re- sponsibility onto others and even took the chance to fabricate charges against their foes. The panic caused by the events shows that the despotic machine of the Western Han Dynasty, after operating for more than 200 years, was doomed to collapse.