CAJ | 학술논문

本文将分税制改革、土地财政和房价水平置于同一框架来研究推动中国城镇房价持续快速上涨的制度性因素。本文发现，较高的房价水平总是与较大规模的土地财政相联系，而土地财政的形成与1994年的分税制改革密切相关。在对上述经验事实进行背景分析的基础上，运用2000--2008年的分省面板数据实证分析了影响中国城镇房价上涨的多层次因素，在控制了经济基本面、城市化率和地区竞争等其他潜在影响房价的因素后，经验结果表明，1994年以来的分税制集权化改革是导致房价持续过快上涨的不可忽视的制度性因素，进一步分析得出，土地财政是联系分税制改革和高房价的中间变量。本文的估计结果对替代性财政分权变量的选取、估计方法的选择和估计函数形式的设定均是非常稳健的。
본문장분세제개혁、토지재정화방개수평치우동일광가래연구추동중국성진방개지속쾌속상창적제도성인소。본문발현，교고적방개수평총시여교대규모적토지재정상련계，이토지재정적형성여1994년적분세제개혁밀절상관。재대상술경험사실진행배경분석적기출상，운용2000--2008년적분성면판수거실증분석료영향중국성진방개상창적다층차인소，재공제료경제기본면、성시화솔화지구경쟁등기타잠재영향방개적인소후，경험결과표명，1994년이래적분세제집권화개혁시도치방개지속과쾌상창적불가홀시적제도성인소，진일보분석득출，토지재정시련계분세제개혁화고방개적중간변량。본문적고계결과대체대성재정분권변량적선취、고계방법적선택화고계함수형식적설정균시비상은건적。
This paper investigates the evidences which influence the housing price in urban China by examining the relationship among tax share reforms, land finance and housing prices. The data says that the higher housing prices are correlated with the larger scale of land finance, meanwhile, the formation of which is closely correlated with a series of fiscal reforms started from 1994. Using provincial panel data from 2000 through 2008, this paper examines the causal link between the fiscal decentralization and higher housing price. Our empirical results find that the asymmetry of rights of revenue and expenditure of local government due to fiscal centralizing reforms is one of important institutional factors which cause the faster increase of housing price. Moreover, the scale of land finance of subnational governments is the middle variable that links the tax share reform and higher housing prices. The results are robust to different definitions of fiscal decentralization variables and alternative estimation methods.