北京交通大学学报：社会科学版
北京交通大學學報：社會科學版
북경교통대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University Social Sciences Edition
2012年
3期
38~43
,共null页
完全分解模型 能源消费 能源消费强度 产业结构
完全分解模型 能源消費 能源消費彊度 產業結構
완전분해모형 능원소비 능원소비강도 산업결구
complete decomposition model; energy consumption; energy consumption intensity; industrial structure
在分析Laspeyres指数及其模型不足的基础上,提出更完善、合理的完全分解模型,基于完全分解模型,运用1980~2008年分产业国内生产总值以及能源消费相关统计数据,定量测算并深入分析了能源消费变动及各个影响因素的贡献率、节能量和节能率。研究结果揭示了我国能源消费变动的原因,为进一步研究我国对能源的需求趋势和制定相关的能源政策提供参考。
在分析Laspeyres指數及其模型不足的基礎上,提齣更完善、閤理的完全分解模型,基于完全分解模型,運用1980~2008年分產業國內生產總值以及能源消費相關統計數據,定量測算併深入分析瞭能源消費變動及各箇影響因素的貢獻率、節能量和節能率。研究結果揭示瞭我國能源消費變動的原因,為進一步研究我國對能源的需求趨勢和製定相關的能源政策提供參攷。
재분석Laspeyres지수급기모형불족적기출상,제출경완선、합리적완전분해모형,기우완전분해모형,운용1980~2008년분산업국내생산총치이급능원소비상관통계수거,정량측산병심입분석료능원소비변동급각개영향인소적공헌솔、절능량화절능솔。연구결과게시료아국능원소비변동적원인,위진일보연구아국대능원적수구추세화제정상관적능원정책제공삼고。
The complete decomposition model （CDM） can solve the residual problem ignored by Laspeyres index and its decomposition approach perfectly. In this paper, the CDM is used to analyze the energy consumption and the main influence factors in China. With a categorization into different industries, relativities between GDPs, the energy consumption intensity and the industrial structure adjustment are studied as the main influencing factors of the energy consumption changes for the period between 1980 and 2008, with a comprehensive analysis and quantitative calculation of the contribution, the energy-saving capacity and the rate of energy saving as influ- enced by the above factors. The result of the study reveals the causes of the changes in China＇s energy consumption, and provides a reference for further study of China＇s energy demand trends and for the decision making in the development of relevant energy policies.
