CAJ | 학술논문

联合运用马尔可夫状态切换理论（Markovswitching，MS）、蒙特卡罗方法（MonteCarlo，MC）和Copula理论，建立了水环境系统组合风险评估的方法体系．该方法首选运用MS理论建立起水质时序的自回归模型（MS—AR），然后运用MS—AR模型和MC方法对水质时序进行随机模拟，最后运用Copula函数建立起随机模拟结果之间的多维联合分布，利用该联合分布对水环境系统的组合风险做出定量分析．实例应用中，对天津果河桥断面的氨氮、总磷、五日生化需氧量、溶解氧等四项主要监测指标，进行了超标组合风险定量分析和相关性分析，发现果河桥断面的上述四项监测指标中，总磷和五日生化需氧量对果河水环境的健康状况有重要影响，并且总磷和五日生化需氧量之间存在着较强的正相关关系．
연합운용마이가부상태절환이론（Markovswitching，MS）、몽특잡라방법（MonteCarlo，MC）화Copula이론，건립료수배경계통조합풍험평고적방법체계．해방법수선운용MS이론건립기수질시서적자회귀모형（MS—AR），연후운용MS—AR모형화MC방법대수질시서진행수궤모의，최후운용Copula함수건립기수궤모의결과지간적다유연합분포，이용해연합분포대수배경계통적조합풍험주출정량분석．실례응용중，대천진과하교단면적안담、총린、오일생화수양량、용해양등사항주요감측지표，진행료초표조합풍험정량분석화상관성분석，발현과하교단면적상술사항감측지표중，총린화오일생화수양량대과하수배경적건강상황유중요영향，병차총린화오일생화수양량지간존재착교강적정상관관계．
Accurately assessment of the water environment system combined risk may contribute to the evaluation of the water environment system health status, which has great significance to the safety management of water environment. Markov switching theory （MS）, Monte Carlo method （MC） and Copula function were comprehensively applied to the establishment of the method system of water environment system combined risk analysis. Firstly, the water quality series auto-regression model （AR） was constructed by using the MS. Secondly, the MS-AR and MC Thirdly, the Copula function was applied to the were applied to the simulation of water quality series. construction of multivariate joint distribution of water quality simulation series to calculate the combine risk of the water environment system. Finally, the method system was applied to the Guohe section＇s water quality combined risk evaluation. The result shows that TP and BOD5 have important effects to the water environment health status of the Guohe, and that there is a positive correlation between TP and BODs.