CAJ | 학술논문

目前中国上市公司资本结构呈现出动态的趋势。本文结合有关公司资本结构的最近研究成果以及相关理论知识,分析中国上市公司资本结构变动的具体影响因素,并为这些因素创建模型来进行深入的回归分析,进而得出中国上市公司资本结构动态变化的基本趋势。本文借助Tobit模型预测中国上市公司的目标资本结构,然后再通过局部调整模型分析资本结构变化的影响因素,进而找出资金缺口和市场时机是影响上市公司偏离目标资本结构的关键因素。研究发现,虽然上市公司的资本结构受到影响,但是一段时间后,上市公司的资本结构总是会倾向于动态的目标资本结构,因此,目标资本结构对公司资本结构的变化起着关键作用。
목전중국상시공사자본결구정현출동태적추세。본문결합유관공사자본결구적최근연구성과이급상관이론지식,분석중국상시공사자본결구변동적구체영향인소,병위저사인소창건모형래진행심입적회귀분석,진이득출중국상시공사자본결구동태변화적기본추세。본문차조Tobit모형예측중국상시공사적목표자본결구,연후재통과국부조정모형분석자본결구변화적영향인소,진이조출자금결구화시장시궤시영향상시공사편리목표자본결구적관건인소。연구발현,수연상시공사적자본결구수도영향,단시일단시간후,상시공사적자본결구총시회경향우동태적목표자본결구,인차,목표자본결구대공사자본결구적변화기착관건작용。
At present, the capital structure of China＇s listed companies indicates dynamic trend. Combing recent research achievements related to company capital structure and relevant theoretical knowledge, this paper analyzes specific influence factors of capital structure changes of China＇ s listed companies, and created models for the factors in order to conduct deep regression analysis, and work out basic trend of dynamic changes of China＇ s listed companies capital structure. This paper applies Tobit model to predict the targeted capital structure of China＇ s listed companies, and then analyze the influence factors of capital structure through partially adjusting model. The results shows that although the capital structure of listed companies has been affected, over a period of time, the capital structure of listed companies always trend to dynamic targeted capital structure. Therefore, the targeted capital structure plays critical role in companies capital structure changes.