CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过构建非约束性向量自回归模型和包含协整约束条件的向量自回归模型以及脉冲响应函数,研究我国物流业和我国国内外贸易之间的关联性。经验实证研究表明,我国物流业、对外贸易和国内贸易三者之间存在且仅存在唯一协整关系,物流业的发展对国内贸易和对外贸易的促进作用是长期且持续稳定的,三者之间存在明显的联动机制,与对外贸易相比,国内贸易对物流业发展的推动作用要显著得多,二者之间的联动效应更为突出。
본문통과구건비약속성향량자회귀모형화포함협정약속조건적향량자회귀모형이급맥충향응함수,연구아국물류업화아국국내외무역지간적관련성。경험실증연구표명,아국물류업、대외무역화국내무역삼자지간존재차부존재유일협정관계,물류업적발전대국내무역화대외무역적촉진작용시장기차지속은정적,삼자지간존재명현적련동궤제,여대외무역상비,국내무역대물류업발전적추동작용요현저득다,이자지간적련동효응경위돌출。
In this paper, the long- run dynamic relationship of logistic industry to domestic and foreign trade in China is examined with Unrestricted Vector Autoregression model, Vector Error Correction model and Impulse Response Function. The empirical study shows that only one reliable eointegration relationship exists between them; The promoting effects on domestic and foreign trade by the development of logistics industry is long- term, continuous and stable as well. There are certain linkage mechanisms between logistics industry, domestic trade and foreign trade. The pushing effect of domestic trade upon the development of logistics industry is far more greater than that of foreign trade. The linkage mechanism between logistics industry and domestic trade functions more efllciently.