CAJ | 학술논문

本文在非均衡框架下考察中国最优外汇储备数量特征并对持储动机进行静态和动态分解。结果发现：中国的实际和最优外汇储备量自2002年起陡增,但后者始终低于前者且二者缺口不断扩大;中国的最优外汇储备持有行为体现着交易性动机、预防性动机、重商主义动机和攀比动机,并受汇率因素影响;交易性动机和攀比动机对最优外汇储备持有行为的影响最大,预防性动机在2006年以后逐渐强化,重商主义动机和汇率因素的影响微弱;中国较低的储备缺口调整系数造成中国最优外汇储备量居高不下。外需拉动型的经济发展模式、强制结售汇制和汇率弹性不足则是导致储备缺口调整系数低下的重要原因。
본문재비균형광가하고찰중국최우외회저비수량특정병대지저동궤진행정태화동태분해。결과발현：중국적실제화최우외회저비량자2002년기두증,단후자시종저우전자차이자결구불단확대;중국적최우외회저비지유행위체현착교역성동궤、예방성동궤、중상주의동궤화반비동궤,병수회솔인소영향;교역성동궤화반비동궤대최우외회저비지유행위적영향최대,예방성동궤재2006년이후축점강화,중상주의동궤화회솔인소적영향미약;중국교저적저비결구조정계수조성중국최우외회저비량거고불하。외수랍동형적경제발전모식、강제결수회제화회솔탄성불족칙시도치저비결구조정계수저하적중요원인。
This paper explores the quantitative characteristics of China＇ s optimal foreign reserves under disequilibrium framework and then decomposes reserve hoarding motivations in static and dynamic model. We find that：China＇ s actual and optimal foreign reserves are surging since 2002 with the later far below the former and their gap extending; China＇s accumulation of optimal foreign exchange reserves reveals the presence of transaction motivation, precautionary motivation, mercantilism motivation, competitive motivation and the influence of exchange rate volatility. The transaction motivation and competitive motivation are of the largest influence, and the precautionary motivation is of upward trending since 2006, while the mercantilism motivation and exchange rate factor are of weak influence; The lower adjustment coefficient λ finally leads to China＇ s high optimal foreign reserves. Export - oriented economic development mode, compulsory foreign exchange settlement regime and lack of foreign exchange rate flexibility lead to the lower adjustment coefficient λ.