CAJ | 학술논문

基于国内外关于均衡汇率的相关研究，选择由Montiel提出的ERER改进模型，并结合中国实际情况，构建人民币均衡实际汇率模型，并利用单位根检验，协整分析，误差修正模型，H—P滤波技术对人民币均衡实际汇率进行测算，研究人民币汇率是否失调。结果表明：人民币实际有效汇率与开放度、货币供应量、外汇储备之间存在协整关系，人民币汇率错位修正机制存在，自我修正功能较强。另外，2008年金融危机发生以来，人民币实际有效汇率小幅高估，所以国外提出让人民币大幅升值的观点不切实际。
기우국내외관우균형회솔적상관연구，선택유Montiel제출적ERER개진모형，병결합중국실제정황，구건인민폐균형실제회솔모형，병이용단위근검험，협정분석，오차수정모형，H—P려파기술대인민폐균형실제회솔진행측산，연구인민폐회솔시부실조。결과표명：인민폐실제유효회솔여개방도、화폐공응량、외회저비지간존재협정관계，인민폐회솔착위수정궤제존재，자아수정공능교강。령외，2008년금융위궤발생이래，인민폐실제유효회솔소폭고고，소이국외제출양인민폐대폭승치적관점불절실제。
Based on the equilibrium exchange rate theory , considering the actual situation in China , learned from improved ERER model which proposed by Montiel, the equilibrium ex- change rate model was built in the paper. After cointegration analysis, the model was revised. Estimating equilibrium real exchange rate by H-P filtering techniques, the rate misalignment was analyzed. The results show that cointegration can be found among real exchange rate, openness, government expenditure and foreign exchange reserves. And it is also found that RMB exchange rate can self correct. Moreover, since the financial crisis in 2008, RMB real effective exchange rate is slightly overvalued, the opinion of ＂China should appreciate RMB＂ is unrealistic.