CAJ | 학술논문

笔者采用投入产出分析法,计算了1997年～2007年我国外贸出口中隐含碳总量,并采用结构分解法分解规模效应、结构效应、技术效应。结果表明：规模效应是出口隐含碳上升的主导因素,这是由于我国外贸出口高速增长,却作为＂世界工厂＂处于全球价值链底端的生产、加工环节;出口商品结构的改变对隐含碳影响不大,主要原因是我国出口行业的调整是从某些行业价值链的底端跳到另一些行业的底端,而并非价值链上纵向延伸,高能耗、低附加值的特点并未改变;凭借技术引进的资本体现式技术进步对降低能耗有作用,但不很明显,且不够稳定。
필자채용투입산출분석법,계산료1997년～2007년아국외무출구중은함탄총량,병채용결구분해법분해규모효응、결구효응、기술효응。결과표명：규모효응시출구은함탄상승적주도인소,저시유우아국외무출구고속증장,각작위＂세계공엄＂처우전구개치련저단적생산、가공배절;출구상품결구적개변대은함탄영향불대,주요원인시아국출구행업적조정시종모사행업개치련적저단도도령일사행업적저단,이병비개치련상종향연신,고능모、저부가치적특점병미개변;빙차기술인진적자본체현식기술진보대강저능모유작용,단불흔명현,차불구은정。
The paper calculates the amount of CO2 emission embodied in China＇s export from 1997 to 2007 by means of input-output analysis and decomposes the factors that affect the carbon emission i.e. scale effect,structure effect and technology effect. The scale effect is overwhelming, because china’s export volume is huge but the exporting industries are engaged in global manufacturing division. The structure effect is not noticeable,which is due to the fact that China’s adjustment of export composition is horizontal change of industries,jumping from one manufacturing division of an industry to another one,instead of vertical extending along the value chain,so the features of low adding of value and high consumption in energy remain. The technology effect is neither very obvious nor stable,since China’s improvement of technology is embodied in capital and the approach has both positive and negative effects on energy consumption. Based on above analyses,the paper puts forward the corresponding strategies.