CAJ | 학술논문

近些年,北京市能源消费需求不断增加,能源对外依存度较高,资源瓶颈问题日益突出。基于LMDI方法定量分析了1996—2009年北京市第一、第二、第三产业终端能源消费的变化特征,研究影响北京市二氧化碳排放变化的主要因素及各因素的贡献程度。研究结果表明：调整产业结构起到的影响作用正逐渐减弱,而降低能源强度能够有效抑制终端能源消费和二氧化碳排放量的增加。虽然优化能源消费结构的作用在目前并不显著,但未来仍有很大发展空间。因此,北京市在快速发展经济的同时,应该重视转变经济增长方式,优化产业结构调整,降低能源强度及碳排放系数,提高能源利用效率,以减缓能源消费及二氧化碳排放的增长速度。
근사년,북경시능원소비수구불단증가,능원대외의존도교고,자원병경문제일익돌출。기우LMDI방법정량분석료1996—2009년북경시제일、제이、제삼산업종단능원소비적변화특정,연구영향북경시이양화탄배방변화적주요인소급각인소적공헌정도。연구결과표명：조정산업결구기도적영향작용정축점감약,이강저능원강도능구유효억제종단능원소비화이양화탄배방량적증가。수연우화능원소비결구적작용재목전병불현저,단미래잉유흔대발전공간。인차,북경시재쾌속발전경제적동시,응해중시전변경제증장방식,우화산업결구조정,강저능원강도급탄배방계수,제고능원이용효솔,이감완능원소비급이양화탄배방적증장속도。
In recent years, the demand of Beijing＇ s energy consumption is increasing and the energy external dependence is growing higher and higher. By using the LMDI method, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of the terminal energy consumption of Beijing＇s primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry from 1996 to 2009. It studied the main factors that affected carbon dioxide emissions and the contribution degree of each factor. The results of the study show that the effect of industrial structure＇s adjustment is gradually abated, while the lower energy intensity can reduce the terminal energy consumption and carbon emissions effectively. Although it is not useful by optimizing the energy consumption structure at present, it would have a better effect in the future. Thus, with the rapid development of economy in Beijing,more attention should be paid to change the model of economic growth. Based on the above empirical analysis, some proposals are put forward.