CAJ | 학술논문

为了测算分析社会保障制度的可持续发展,世界上不少国家建立了社会保障基金长期财务预测模型。与确定性财务预测模型相比,随机预测模型有利于阐明预测结果所面临的不确定。美国在运用随机预测模型对社会保障基金的财务状况进行预测方面走在世界最前端,我国对社会保障基金随机预测模型的研究基本处于空白。本文对美国社会保障署和国会预算办公室采用的社会保障基金长期随机预测模型进行了比较分析,对两种模型的选择给出了建议,最后提出了我国建立社会保障基金长期预测模型的建议。
위료측산분석사회보장제도적가지속발전,세계상불소국가건립료사회보장기금장기재무예측모형。여학정성재무예측모형상비,수궤예측모형유리우천명예측결과소면림적불학정。미국재운용수궤예측모형대사회보장기금적재무상황진행예측방면주재세계최전단,아국대사회보장기금수궤예측모형적연구기본처우공백。본문대미국사회보장서화국회예산판공실채용적사회보장기금장기수궤예측모형진행료비교분석,대량충모형적선택급출료건의,최후제출료아국건립사회보장기금장기예측모형적건의。
In order to evaluate the financial sustainability of the social security system,many countries have developed long-term financial projection models for social security funds. Comparing to the deterministic projection models, stochastic models can be used to illustrate the degree of uncertainty inherent in the projecting future financial outcomes. U. S. has the most advanced experience in operating stochastic projection models for social security fund in the world. But, there is almost no effort in this subject in China. This paper analyzes and compares the different long-term stochastic projection models for social security fund between Social Security Administration and Congressional Budget Office in U. S. ,based on the analysis and comparison,this paper give some suggestions on the model selection and for establishing long-term projection models for social security fund in China.