CAJ | 학술논문

对＂控制人口数量＂基本国策的实现程度有基本完成和远未完成两种判定。主张稳定人口的基本完成论以人口过快增长得到有效遏制作依据,并为＂人口—环境均衡论＂、＂零增长—可持续人口论＂、＂常量人口—压力消失论＂和＂人口冬天论＂所支持。远未完成论则坚持将缩减人口作为中国新的人口发展战略：持续性的症结是规模而非均衡,一个能为土地生产力支持的人口并不一定能保证与环境均衡的持续,存在着间断;人口规模问题不存在技术、经济和制度解,老龄化并非衰亡,人口压力远未消失;体现人少优势、具有＂釜底抽薪＂作用的小规模人口将从根本上改变＂人口多、底子薄＂的基本国情,保障粮食安全,增加选择机会和维护发展的可持续性;而维持一个15亿的稳定人口,必将使我们陷入＂规模泥潭＂而断送中华民族的未来。
대＂공제인구수량＂기본국책적실현정도유기본완성화원미완성량충판정。주장은정인구적기본완성론이인구과쾌증장득도유효알제작의거,병위＂인구—배경균형론＂、＂령증장—가지속인구론＂、＂상량인구—압력소실론＂화＂인구동천론＂소지지。원미완성론칙견지장축감인구작위중국신적인구발전전략：지속성적증결시규모이비균형,일개능위토지생산력지지적인구병불일정능보증여배경균형적지속,존재착간단;인구규모문제불존재기술、경제화제도해,노령화병비쇠망,인구압력원미소실;체현인소우세、구유＂부저추신＂작용적소규모인구장종근본상개변＂인구다、저자박＂적기본국정,보장양식안전,증가선택궤회화유호발전적가지속성;이유지일개15억적은정인구,필장사아문함입＂규모니담＂이단송중화민족적미래。
The choice between population reduction or stable population is a critical issue to China. There are two interpretations of the basic national policy - ＂population control.＂ Basically completed theory advocating stable population is based on the idea that ＂excessive population growth＂ has been effectively curbed and is supported by the population-environment equilibrium theory,＂zero growthsustainable population theory, the pressure of constant population-disappeared theory＂ and the ＂demogmphicwinter theory. ＂ Basically completed theory is not only untenable but actually harmful -- ＂the constant populationpressure disappearS＇ contributes to misleading results of statistical analysis; ＂zero growth-sustainable population theory＂ puts the Chinese nation in a very precarious position; ＂aging is not the decline of the demographic winter＂ on the fear syndrome is confusing and misleading; reasonable age structure willgenerate a ＂fallacy of composition,＂ and will bring disaster to the country and biosphere. ＂Far from being completed＂ emphasizes ＂population reduction＂ as the main population development strategy for China. First, land capacity is inversely associated with ecological-environmental stability a population supported by land productivity does not guarantee continuous equilibrium with the environment. Second, the main issue is scale rather than ＂equilibrium.＂ The lengths of stable and continuous （exponentially decreasing or increasing） Systems with different sizes of population （1. 5 billion or 200 million） are not the same. Third, the size of the population problem has neither economic, system solution, there was no time to save the nature and dissipation point, matter, energy savings technology solutions-technology ＂ceiling effect,＂ will enable the technology to solve the ＂stuck＂ scale quagmire evolved into the ＂trap＂ and ＂black hole. ＂ Fourth, a small population and expansive land is what makes the USA such a dominant world power. Russia＇s rise, in addition to its huge amount of oil and gas, can also be attributed to its small population. Fifth, a large scale population not only constitutes the biggest food security challenge for China and presents a persistent threat, but it also reduces the flexibility of the world grain markets to adjust the economic structure. Sixth, ＂two different choices, two different destinies. ＂ Maintaining a ＂stable population＂ of 1.5 billion people is certain to bog China down and may result in the demise of the nation. However, a small-scale population that exhibits the advantages of a smaller demographic base will fundamentally change the basic national conditions of a China plagued by a large population but a weak economic foundation. It would help to ensure food security, increase options and flexibility, and would allow for sustainable development.