CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用Box—Jenkins提出的ARIMA模型，对中国1990年以来的火电季度数据进行了分析，预测了“十二五”期间中国火电需求量。预测结果表明，“十二五”期间中国火电需求量和火电产业仍处于快速增长和发展上升期，这将进一步加剧本已十分激烈的“市场煤”和“计划电”之间的冲突。
본문이용Box—Jenkins제출적ARIMA모형，대중국1990년이래적화전계도수거진행료분석，예측료“십이오”기간중국화전수구량。예측결과표명，“십이오”기간중국화전수구량화화전산업잉처우쾌속증장화발전상승기，저장진일보가극본이십분격렬적“시장매”화“계화전”지간적충돌。
Since 1990, the power consumption of China has had a very significant growth trend. Thermal power generation which takes coal as its fuel has always occupied absolute dominant position. This paper uses the ARIMA model advanced by Box- Jenkins to analyze quarterly data of China thermal power from 1990 and forecasts thermal power demand during the twelfth five - year plan. Prediction results show that Chinese thermal power demand and thermal power industry will still in rapid growth and development stage. This will further aggravate the conflict between ＂market coal＂ and ＂plan electricity＂ .